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Should I sell my house now or wait? 2024

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The past few years have been a rollercoaster ride for Australian property. Prices soared by +28.6 per cent over the pandemic boom before rising interest rates caused a downturn in 2022. A remarkable rebound through 2023 has now pushed home values back to record levels in the new year. 

Interest rates appear to have settled at a high level but we're still seeing further monthly growth on the national level. Clearly, there's a lot to consider for anybody thinking about listing their home. 

Is it best to take advantage of the current conditions in what remains a seller's market? Or is there value in waiting to see how things unfold over the coming months?

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Whether you choose to sell isn’t just about current market conditions, but also the urgency of your own personal circumstances. For some of us, we needed to upsize into a bigger property yesterday, while for others, waiting for the market to rise might be a good incentive to release more capital before retirement. 

Let’s explore the current real estate climate, the pros and cons of waiting versus selling now, and what economists believe is on the horizon for 2024 and beyond.

The current state of the market

According to CoreLogic data, Australia's property downturn halted and reversed in the early months of 2023. As of February 2024, the national median home price has never been higher.

CoreLogic Australian Home Value Index - January 2024

MarketMonthQuarterAnnualMedian value
Sydney0.2%0.1%11.4%$1,122,430
Melbourne-0.1%-0.9%3.9%$777,250
Brisbane1.0%3.2%14.8%$796,818
Adelaide1.1%3.7%10.3%$721,376
Perth1.6%4.9%16.7%$676,823
Hobart-0.7%-1.5%-0.4%$651,807
Darwin0.3%0.7%-0.1%$501,520
Canberra-0.2%0.2%1.2%$842,971
Combined capitals0.4%1.0%10.0%$836,013
Combined regional0.4%1.2%4.9%$605,085
Australia0.4%1.0%8.7%$759,437

Sydney and Melbourne both kickstarted the market recovery, with Sydney gaining a staggering +11.4 per cent in 12 months, but both cities have recently cooled off. 

Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide are all delivering remarkable growth, hitting new all-time highs for consecutive months. Hobart, Darwin and Canberra, meanwhile, have been hovering around flat levels. 

Regional markets have been showing softer performance on the whole but are still on an upward trajectory and are now back on par with the capitals. 

On an annual basis, houses have outperformed units as new builds have slumped and demand has swelled due to rapid population growth. 

That said, demand for established units has remained particularly high in the face of negative media coverage around defect-ridden new developments. 

Helpful resource: Get a suburb profile for any suburb in Australia

Australian property market forecast

Interest rates were the number one talking point since they began rising in May 2022, but the future is finally looking clearer. 

Inflation is now falling at a faster rate than forecast and the RBA has held steady since the cash rate bump to 4.35 per cent in November.

Big four banks' cash rate forecast 2024-25

BankPeak cash rateMonth of peakRate cut forecastMonth of trough
CBA4.35%November 20232.85%May 2025
NAB4.35%November 20233.10%February 2026
Westpac4.35%November 20232.85%December 2025
ANZ4.35%November 20233.35%June 2025

All four banks expect rates to remain on hold until the latter half of 2024 when cuts could begin, potentially helping to stimulate further growth. 

Again looking to the big banks, their latest price forecasts show continued but slower growth than we saw throughout 2023.

Big banks' Australian property price forecast 2024-25

Bank2024 national forecast2025 national forecast
Westpac6.0%4.0%
NAB4.9%3.7%
CBA5.0%N/A
ANZ3.0%4.5%

Maree Kilroy, senior economist at Oxford Economics Australia, told the AFR that "With the context of a growing dwelling stock deficiency, the return of interest rate cuts will drive the next acceleration of price growth from late 2024 onwards."

However, "the pace of growth is slowing as a result of the additional interest rate lift in November and rising total listing volumes, so this year would be softer in terms of price growth."

Eleanor Creagh, Senior Economist at PropTrack, also pointed to record levels of overseas migration as a key factor driving values up. 

"Population growth is likely to place continued upward pressure on home and rental prices while supply conditions remain constrained," she said. 

What are the upsides in the current market? 

There has been another big momentum shift across Australia's property markets over the past year. 

On the selling front, listings held exceptionally low since September 2022, and that shortage of available stock on the market drove prices up as vendors experienced less competition from other sellers. 

New listings in some markets finally started getting a boost in July last year, but buyer demand has been bolstered by a number of factors, as Pete Wargent of Allen Wargent Property Buyers explained

"Most of the major banks are forecasting price growth in 2024 and 2025 which would reflect a peak in interest rates, high population growth and very, very tight rental markets which tend to encourage first-time buyers into the market," he said. 

"Following that line of thought, demand should hold up pretty well."

Listings remain far below average levels in Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide, but they've increased in Sydney and Melbourne. There's more to that story, though, as Sydney buyer's agent Michelle May explained

A large portion of that fresh stock has come from investors exiting the market, and "If you're looking for a newer apartment and you're open to higher density, there's plenty of choice."

When it comes to houses and family-friendly apartments, though, there's still "not as much stock as we would like to see from a buyer's perspective."

Ultimately, prices are at or near record levels in many markets across the country, and looking back over the past few years there has been an exceptional level of growth for home values.

See what houses are selling for in your area with a free property report of your local area.

What about investment properties? 

Current market conditions are a bit of a double-edged sword for property investors. 

On the one hand, an extremely tight rental market is providing incentives. SQM Research data shows national vacancy rates still around historic lows at just 1.1 per cent in January, while rental rates have soared more than +11 per cent per annum over the past three years. 

At the same time, interest rates rose a full +4.25 per cent over just 18 months, driving mortgage repayments far higher. 

How the two forces play out largely depends on an investor's loan balance. Some investors are opting to sell up to avoid inflated repayments, while others with lower or nil balances may benefit from the current rental market dynamics.

Should I sell my house now or wait?

If you’re still on the fence about selling, we get it. It’s a huge decision that deserves all your careful consideration weighing up the advantages and disadvantages for either scenario. 

Even if the market feels uncertain, it’s important to remember that it’s all relative and the market doesn’t stop. There will always be properties being listed and buyers out there wanting to purchase a home. 

It's also crucial to recognise that conditions will vary from suburb to suburb, so it’s important to understand your own local market — and to do that, you really need to get granular. 

Whether your property is impacted by price gains or falls depends on many factors including location, property type, and whether your home falls into the higher or lower end of the market.

If you’re seriously considering selling your home, you need to do your research. As a first step, get an estimate of what your home might be worth in today's market

Speaking to a top local agent is also one of the best ways to get a thorough understanding of how buyers are behaving in your suburb, what kinds of results are still being achieved, and what the best strategy could be for you to still get that dream sale result. 

At the very least, it’s helpful to hear what properties are selling for, what demand is currently like for homes like yours, and to get a no-obligation appraisal of what your home might sell for in the current market. A top agent who knows your market like the back of their hand will be able to help you along the journey.

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