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Northern beaches property market forecast and trends

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Looking for a current forecast of the Northern Beaches property market?

Sydney’s Northern Beaches includes prime real estate, with iconic suburbs and landmarks such as Avalon Beach, Balgowlah, Ku-ring-gai Chase, Manly, Palm Beach, Pittwater and Whale Beach. 

No wonder that there is strong demand for property in this area, with the relaxed, beach/nature focused lifestyle a strong drawcard, not to mention the potential for positive capital growth and generous rental yields. This was amplified during the pandemic, as buyers Make no mistake, you will pay for the privilege of living in one of the ‘lifestyle’ suburbs, especially in a house near the water  - but there are plenty of suburbs with more affordable units.

Northern Beaches property market forecast and outlook

Let’s start by looking at the latest Northern Beaches market trends and what to expect in the months and years ahead. 

Sydney’s property market has taken a hit since the RBA started raising interest rates in May.  According to CoreLogic data this has seen Sydney property values fall -2.5 per cent since the start of the year. NAB is forecasting Sydney dwellings will lose -8.8 per cent of their value over 2022, and -13.4 per cent in 2023. Other property analysts have a similar outlook, though projected declines - or a crash - of this magnitude rarely happen. 

The reality is that a less severe correction is more likely. We must also remember that property values grew at the fastest annual rate on record over 2021, and in many cases are still at record highs in many locations. There is also no single property market, but each suburb or postcode has its own unique drivers - and the Northern Beaches market outlook is no exception. 

In this context, propertyupdate.com.au reports that, ‘A-grade homes and investment-grade properties are still selling well’. Overall house prices are more likely to lose more value in the short term versus units/apartments, as they grew faster over the past three years. 

Domain’s House Price Report indicates house values rose, ‘+40 per cent from trough to peak during the pandemic, while unit prices rose only 9%’. 

Let’s now look at some potential growth suburbs to watch on the Northern Beaches, courtesy of data from realestate.com.au.

Northern Beaches property market: Top 5 growth suburbs

Warriewood, Northern Beaches, 2102

  • Median house price: $2,370,000 (+4.7%/12 months)
  • Median unit price: $1,340,000 (+20%/ 12 months)

Beach-side suburb Warriewood is relatively affordable compared to other Northern Beaches postcodes, with a median house price of $2,370,000 and $1,340,000 for units. Houses here have grown +4.7 per cent over the past 12 months and +14.7 per cent over the last 5 years. Units have advanced a whopping +20 per cent over the past year, and could provide significant growth potential moving forward. Houses in Warriewood have an annual rental yield of 3.0 per cent, while units yield of 3.1 per cent annually.

Dee Why, Northern Beaches, 2099

  • Median house price: $2,600,000 (+5.3%/12 months)
  • Median unit price: $975,000 (+12.4%/ 12 months)

Dee Why has a good mix of established houses and red-brick low-rise units, with the latter median of $975,000 an affordable entry-point into the Northern beaches lifestyle. With a median house price of $2,600,000, values grew +5.3 per cent in Dee Why over the past year. You can expect rent of $950 per week from a house here, with an annual rental yield of 2.0 per cent. Like other locations units have outperformed houses in this location, here advancing +12.4 per cent over the past year, for a median unit price of $975,000. 

Beacon Hill, Northern Beaches, 2100

  • Median house price: $2,350,000 (+16.9%/12 months)
  • Median unit price: n/a

Beacon Hill is just 17km from Sydney’s CBD, and is bordered by Brookvale to the south, Frenchs Forest to the west and Dee Why to the east. Houses dominate here, with a median price of $2,350,000, have outperformed many other Northern Beaches postcodes, advancing +16.9 per cent over the past year. You can expect to receive around $880 per week for a house in Beacon Hill, and an annual rental yield of 2.1 per cent. 

Balgowlah, Northern Beaches, 2093

  • Median house price: $3,425,000 (+22.3%/12 months)
  • Median unit price: $1,300,000 (-8.9%/12 months)

Harbourside suburb Balgowlah is prime real estate and the prices for houses here reflect this - with a median house price of $3,425,000. Growth here has been outstanding over the past year, advancing +22.3 per cent. This indicates strong demand and is notable as many other Northern Beaches locations have posted single digit gains over this timeframe. Houses in the area rent out for $1,300 per week, with an annual rental yield of 2.2 per cent. Units have underperformed over the past year, dropping -8.9 per cent - but this could be a great buying opportunity if you are after an investment property. 

Newport, Northern Beaches, 2106

  • Median house price: $3,350,000 (+27.6%/12 months)
  • Median unit price: $1,275,000 (+15.6%/12 months)

Near the tip of the Northern Beaches, Newport has the best of both worlds, with frontage onto the ocean or Pittwater - and the prices here reflect this. Pandemic demand for locations such as this have driven the Northern Beaches property boom, with houses advancing +27.6 per cent over the past year for a median price of  $3,350,000. Units are no less in demand in Newport, up +15.6 per cent over the past 12 months for a median of $1,275,000. 

Let’s now look at what the future holds for the Northern Beaches locality and its property market.

Northern Beaches property market: Demographic trends and the future 

NSW government projections are for the population of the Northern Beaches to increase by 15,514 to 289,529 by 2041, an increase of + 0.28 per cent every year. Population growth is a crucial driver of property values, so this bodes well for the long term future - with the lifestyle and natural features of the area both key drawcards. 

In terms of development, The Northern Beaches Council appears to have a clear plan for managing development in the area - and has funded critical infrastructure like the state-of-the-art Northern Beaches Hospital in Frenchs Forest. They are also investing in upgrades to the congested roads in the area, with a view to moving more residents on to public transport.

All this is sure to keep demand for property on the Northern Beaches high, and an ideal area to invest in houses or units.

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