Brisbane property market data, trends, forecasts

Brisbane property market news

After a blazing run of growth followed by a sudden and sharp downturn, the Brisbane property market is back on the rise. Home values exploded by +42.7 per cent from the Covid trough to the market peak in June 2022, and while prices fell fast from that peak, CoreLogic data shows there has been a sudden turnaround in the first half of 2023 that resulted in further strong growth in October. 

Brisbane property prices - October 2023

The impact of rising interest rates took some time to be felt in Brisbane when compared to other markets thanks to superior affordability, and an extended period of high interstate migration to Queensland has helped bolster housing in the state. Even so, rate hikes ended up taking their toll on the Brisbane property market. Price growth is now defying the high-rate environment, though, sending values back up to peak levels once again. 

Listings remain very low across the city. Compared to 12 months ago, the number of new listings was up just +3.9 per cent in Brisbane, suggesting supply remains stretched. Demand has slipped to a similar degree, with sales volumes down by -12.4 per cent in the 12 months to October 2023, though there are signs that buyers are coming back in force. 

That renewed buyer appetite has pushed Brisbane's median days on market (DOM) down to just 23 for the October quarter. 12 months ago, that figure was sitting up at 27. 

Brisbane house prices

After the house-led boom over the past two years brought attached housing prices up to record levels, it was to be expected that the average house price in Brisbane would be first in line to experience a correction. A sharp rebound has occurred in 2023, though. 

Brisbane house prices - October 2023

The median house price in Brisbane got another substantial boost in October, gaining another +1.4 per cent. Across the quarter, house prices were well into the green with +3.8 per cent in value added, while annual growth ballooned out to +7.5 per cent.

Top 5 Brisbane suburbs for first home buyers - houses

Brisbane's median house price skyrocketed over the past two years, making affordable housing harder to come by for first home buyers. Here are some of our top picks for Brisbane suburbs where you can buy below the median house price.

Top Brisbane suburbs under $500,000 house price

Brisbane unit prices

Unlike houses, the Brisbane unit market declined at a relatively gentle rate throughout the downturn as investors and first home buyers seek out value, and now growth has returned. 

Brisbane unit prices - October 2023

The median unit price in Brisbane shot up by +1.3 per cent in October, bringing quarterly changes back up to strong positive territory at +3.5 per cent. Over the past 12 months, Brisbane units have increased in value by a full +9.6 per cent, bringing the median price back to over $545,000.

Top 5 Brisbane suburbs for first home buyers - units

Units offer better affordability for first home buyers in Brisbane, although median prices have still climbed since 2020. Here are some of our top picks for Brisbane suburbs where you can buy below the median unit price. 

Top Brisbane suburbs under $500,000 unit price

Brisbane property market forecast 2023-24

After such historic growth over the pandemic and the correction phase that followed, Brisbane's market recovery looks well entrenched. The question is, how much further can price growth go in this cycle? 

NAB's latest Brisbane house price forecast has made a sharp turnaround with predictions of prices rising +12.1 per cent in 2023 with +6.5 per cent to come in 2024.

Westpac's Brisbane real estate forecast also did a recent backflip, suggesting a +4.0 per cent uptick in 2024, with CBA telling an even more optimistic story. 

Big four banks' Brisbane home price forecasts 2023-24

Whether or not growth can be sustained still largely depends on the supply and demand dynamic over the rest of the year. Interest rates had extensive impacts on the market and, while there was a period of stability, there remains a question mark around where the peak will be found. 

Currently, the RBA sits at 4.35 per cent, a long way up from the emergency-level 0.1 per cent rate borrowers were enjoying until May 2022. The banks mostly expect there will be no further hikes, with rate cuts to begin in the later stages of 2024 or early in 2025.

Big four banks' cash rate forecast 2023-24

Brisbane apartments substantially outperformed houses throughout the downturn. While they're now growing at a slower rate, they could still deliver strong gains for a number of reasons. 

For one, the 2021 boom was house-led. Affordability in the house market has reached critical levels, even in Brisbane, and with house prices gaining a significant amount more than units, they also had further to correct. 

Units are also expected to appeal further to incoming investors as immigration is set to ramp up significantly, bringing additional demand to the rental market. Looking longer-term, the Brisbane Olympics is another reason the city is seeing an increase in investor activity. 

What are industry experts saying about the Brisbane property market?

Michael Yardney - Director of Metropole Property Strategists

"The strong demand for detached houses in Brisbane, particularly in the inner and middle ring suburbs, and outstanding demand for lifestyle areas, are likely to lead to these locations outperforming cheaper properties in outer suburbs.

At the same time, demand for apartments is likely to remain softer, but more and more Queenslanders are turning to townhouses in Brisbane's inner suburbs as a preferred style of accommodation.

Of course, while some locations in Brisbane have strong growth potential, and the right properties in these locations will make great long-term investments, certain submarkets should be avoided like the plague."

Melinda Jennison - Buyer's Agent, Streamline Property Buyers

"This scarcity of available properties poses a significant challenge for Brisbane property buyers, as despite their willingness to make transactions, they struggle to find suitable options to purchase.

Sellers in Brisbane have been hesitant to put their properties on the market, primarily due to the lack of confidence in finding a new property to buy or rent. In an exceptionally competitive rental market, the possibility of renting as an interim solution between a sale and purchase is challenging and often impossible.

The absence of widespread panic among sellers has resulted in a situation where they refrain from taking action, further tightening the market."

Brisbane house prices graphs and charts

The latest Brisbane property price graph from CoreLogic's monthly chart pack clearly shows the rapid acceleration and sustained highs of the Brisbane property market followed by the equally sharp decline. The worm has turned swiftly once again in 2023.

The massive upward surge from early 2021 follows a lengthy period of stagnation for Brisbane, becoming one of the most explosive times of growth in Australian history. It would take a similarly historic crash to wipe out even the majority of the gains built up in Brisbane over the recent boom. Half-way through 2023 it's safe to say that a crash of that magnitude is no longer on the cards.

Looking at the wider context of the housing market over time, we can see in this 30-year house price growth chart that Brisbane's recent gains have shot prices up at a historic rate.

The declines over recent months pale in comparison to the surge in growth seen across South East Queensland since the pandemic began.

Brisbane property info for sellers

According to Domain's figures, the Brisbane auction clearance rate has on the rise over the past six months, recovering from a low point of 33 per cent on July 30th 2022. Days on market (DOM), meanwhile, is holding significantly lower than some other cities.

Brisbane property investment

The Brisbane property market is looking especially promising for investors as purchase prices decline, rental vacancies are towards record lows, asking rents continue to increase at pace, and further demand is expected as immigration returns and the city gears up for the 2032 Olympics.

Top 5 suburbs for Brisbane investors

BuyersBuyers' latest Investor Special Report detailed some of the top suburbs where Brisbane property investors could find strong potential. 

The report noted that "much of south-east Queensland is suffering from a chronic shortage of available rental stock as population growth has boomed. There is little respite on the horizon, and we expect rental vacancies to remain extremely tight over the year ahead."

Top suburbs for investors to buy units in Brisbane

With the Olympics coming to Brisbane in 2032, investors considering the long-term are wisely eyeing off the city as the market looks set to benefit many years beyond the Games. 

Looking to invest in Brisbane property? 

• Check out our list of best suburbs to invest in Brisbane for 2023
• Dig into some expert advice on where to find the top 10 suburb picks for Australian investors
• Find out the Brisbane suburbs with the highest rental yield
• On a budget? Here are the top 10 cheapest suburbs to buy in Brisbane