Sydney property market data, trends, forecasts

Sydney property market news - key takeaways

• Values falling across the board: Sydney dwelling values fell -1.4 per cent in July 2026 to a median of $1,244,617, with the quarterly decline of -4.0 per cent confirming sustained downward pressure across the Sydney property market.
• Stock rising, buyers taking longer: Total listings are up +14.3 per cent year on year while new listings fell -14.1 per cent, meaning the growing pool of available stock reflects homes sitting unsold rather than fresh supply coming through.
• Buyers holding the advantage at auction: Sydney's auction clearance rate came in at 55.6 per cent for the week ending 16 August 2026, a soft result that sits well below the range typically associated with price growth, giving buyers meaningful negotiating room.
• Rents rising, vacancy flat: Sydney rents climbed +5.5 per cent over the year to July 2026, with houses up +6.1 per cent, while the vacancy rate held steady at 1.6 per cent, keeping conditions firm for landlords.
• Rate relief still a long way off: All four major banks expect the next RBA move to be a cut, but the earliest forecast is May 2027, meaning the current cash rate of 4.35 per cent is set to weigh on borrowing capacity well into next year.

Sydney property price movements

The Sydney property market has been under consistent pressure through 2026, with values falling across all property types. It is one of the sharper corrections among the major capitals, and the numbers for July 2026 reflect that clearly.

Sydney property prices - July 2026

Sydney home values fell -1.4 per cent over the month in July 2026, bringing the median to $1,244,617. The quarterly decline of -4.0 per cent and an annual change of -2.0 per cent confirm the shift is not a short-term blip.

^{Source: Cotality}

The monthly movement translates to a drop of around $17,700 in the typical home value compared with June. Values now sit -5.3 per cent below the January 2026 peak, meaning the market has given back a meaningful share of the gains recorded in the lead-up to that high point.

House prices in Sydney

Sydney house prices fell -1.7 per cent in July 2026, the steepest monthly decline of the three property segments. The Sydney housing market recorded the largest quarterly drag at -4.6 per cent, against an annual decline of -2.5 per cent.

^{Source: Cotality}
The median house price of $1,529,308 represents a fall of around $26,400 from the prior month. At that level, houses are declining faster than units both over the month and over the quarter, pointing to continued pressure at the top end of the price scale.

Unit prices in Sydney

Sydney unit prices eased -0.8 per cent in July 2026, a softer monthly movement than the broader market. The annual change for Sydney unit prices stands at -0.6 per cent, making units the more resilient segment over the longer term.

^{Source: Cotality}

The median unit price of $889,617 is around $7,200 lower than a month earlier. Compared with the -2.5 per cent annual decline recorded for houses, units have held up considerably better over the past year, suggesting buyers at lower price points are more active than those purchasing at the top end of the market.

Sydney property market forecasts 2026

Australia's Big Four banks each publish annual dwelling price forecasts as part of their economic research, and their Sydney house price forecasts for 2026 span a notably wide range. All four banks share the same directional view, Sydney values will fall this calendar year, but they disagree sharply on the scale of that decline.

• CBA predicts Sydney property prices to fall -6.0 per cent over 2026.
• Westpac predicts Sydney property prices to fall -3.0 per cent over 2026.
• NAB's published forecast is at the New South Wales state level; it predicts dwelling prices to fall -3.2 per cent over the next 12 months across New South Wales.
• ANZ predicts Sydney property prices to fall -9.9 per cent over 2026.

The Sydney house price forecast spread runs from -3.0 per cent at the optimistic end (Westpac) to -9.9 per cent at the other (ANZ). CBA's -6.0 per cent sits closer to the midpoint of that range, while NAB's New South Wales state figure of -3.2 per cent sits near the more optimistic end, though it covers the broader state rather than Sydney specifically. These Sydney property market predictions reflect genuine disagreement about how sharply elevated mortgage costs and weakening buyer demand will weigh on values through the rest of the year.

RBA cash rate forecast 2026-2027

The RBA has held the cash rate at 4.35 per cent, in line with consensus expectations following a softer-than-anticipated June inflation reading. All four major banks agree that the next move will be a cut rather than a rise, though they differ on when that first reduction will arrive, with forecasts ranging from May 2027 to as late as September 2027.

• ANZ expects the next cash-rate move to be a 25 basis point cut, forecasting cuts in September and December 2027 to bring the cash rate to 3.85 per cent.
• CBA expects the next cash-rate move to be a 25 basis point cut, forecasting a further cut in September 2027 to bring the cash rate to 3.85 per cent.
• NAB expects the next cash-rate move to be a 25 basis point cut, forecasting two more cuts in September and December 2027 to bring the cash rate to 3.60 per cent.
• Westpac expects the next cash-rate move to be a 25 basis point cut, forecasting another cut in December 2027 to bring the cash rate to 3.85 per cent.

What this means for the Sydney market

At 4.35 per cent, the cash rate continues to compress borrowing capacity for Sydney buyers, a city where even the median dwelling sits above $1,244,617. For a market already recording quarterly falls of -4.0 per cent, the extended wait for rate relief means the affordability constraint is unlikely to ease materially in the near term.

The timing gap between the banks matters. CBA's May 2027 forecast is the most optimistic, but even that is roughly nine months away. Until cuts arrive, the rate environment and the price forecast spread tend to reinforce each other: buyers with stretched borrowing limits are cautious, and that caution is part of what the banks are pricing into their -3.0 per cent to -9.9 per cent range.

Units and more affordably priced segments are likely to hold up better than the top end of the market, where borrowing exposure is greatest and discretionary buyers have the most room to wait. First-home buyers working within tighter borrowing limits may find the relative resilience of Sydney's unit market a more accessible entry point than detached housing, which fell -1.7 per cent in July alone.

Helpful resource: Our simple guide to tracking market trends and data will walk you through everything you need to know to be able to read the market and make a smarter selling decision.

Sydney house prices graphs and charts

Sydney's house price growth over the last 5 years reached a peak in January 2026 before pulling back, and according to Cotality's latest figures, the city's dwelling median now stands at $1,244,617 after falling -1.4 per cent over the month, -4.0 per cent over the quarter, and -2.0 per cent over the year to July 2026. Those three figures together show the pace of decline has been sharpest in recent months, with the quarterly drop well outpacing the annual one.

The five-year chart captures two distinct phases: a sharp run-up driven by record-low interest rates and pandemic-era demand, followed by a reversal that gathered speed once the RBA lifted the cash rate to its current 4.35 per cent. With new listings pulling back as cautious vendors wait for conditions to improve, total stock has continued to build as homes take longer to sell, and that combination of softer demand and rising available supply has been the principal force behind the quarterly decline.

Sydney property 30 year property price graph

Sydney property prices growth over the last 10 years has been strong overall: a large upswing into 2021 was followed by a correction in 2022 and a steady rebuild of momentum through 2023–2025, demonstrating long-run demand, tight supply and the outsized role of interest-rate moves in recent cycles.  

Over the past three decades Sydney has recorded some of the biggest cumulative gains in Australia, but the path has been boom–bust–recovery cycles driven by changes in credit, investor activity and population growth; today homeowners feel more cautious than in 2021 while many buyers are still watching rates and affordability, balancing a desire to buy with a need for certainty about repayments and timing.

Sydney selling statistics

The Sydney property market is showing clear signs of softened demand, with homes taking longer to sell, fewer transactions completing, and sellers accepting larger reductions from their asking prices than a year ago. These trends are consistent across the volume, listing, and negotiation data.

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Sydney sales volume and days on market

Sales volumes in Sydney fell -4.2 per cent year on year, a steeper decline than both the combined capitals (-3.5 per cent) and the national figure (-0.8 per cent). At the same time, the median days on market extended to 41 days, up from 34 days a year ago.

^{Source: Cotality}

Sydney's 41-day median sits notably above the combined capitals figure of 33 days and the national figure of 35 days, making it one of the slower-moving markets in the country right now. For sellers, that gap means pricing and presentation decisions carry more weight than they would in a faster market.

Sydney new and total listings

New listings fell -14.1 per cent year on year, a significant drop that points to many potential sellers choosing to wait rather than test current conditions. Total listings, by contrast, rose +14.3 per cent over the same period.

^{Source: Cotality}

The gap between those two figures tells an important story: the stock building up on market is largely properties that have not yet found a buyer, not a wave of fresh supply coming through. Buyers have more choice than they did a year ago, but much of that choice comes from homes that have been sitting unsold for longer, which is consistent with the extended days-on-market figures above.

Sydney vendor discount and auction clearance rates

Vendor discount measures the percentage difference between the price a property was first listed at and the price it ultimately sold for. Auction clearance rate is the share of properties taken to auction that sell on the day. Taken together, they show how much give there is in asking prices and how competitive the field of buyers is at the point of sale.

Sydney vendor discount

^{Source: Cotality}

Sydney's vendor discount widened to -4.2 per cent, up from -3.3 per cent a year ago. Sellers are accepting offers further below their initial asking price than at any point in the past year, a shift that reflects the broader rise in stock levels and the longer time properties are spending on market.

Sydney auction clearance rates

^{Source: Cotality}

In the week ending 16 August 2026, Sydney recorded a clearance rate of 55.6 per cent from 313 reported results across 425 scheduled auctions. A rate in the mid-50s sits well below the 65-to-70 per cent range typically associated with a balanced market, placing current conditions clearly in buyer-favourable territory, with supply comfortably absorbing the level of demand coming through at auction.

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Sydney property investing

Sydney's rental market continues to reward landlords with steady income growth, even as property values ease. For renters, that growth means costs are moving in one direction only.

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Sydney rental market

The table below covers rental rate changes, gross yields, and annual rent movements for houses and units across Sydney and the other capital cities. These figures give investors a clear picture of how Sydney stacks up against the national market.

^{Source: Cotality}

Sydney rents rose +5.5 per cent over the year to July 2026, with houses lifting +6.1 per cent and units gaining +4.4 per cent. At 3.3 per cent, Sydney's gross yield is the lowest among the capitals, which reflects how far values have run ahead of achievable rents rather than any weakness in the rental market itself. As values ease, that yield figure has begun to inch upward from the floor it hit earlier in the cycle.

Sydney vacancy rates

The vacancy rate measures the share of rental properties sitting empty at any given time. A low rate signals a tight rental market where tenants compete for available stock, while a higher rate gives renters more bargaining power. SQM data shows that Sydney's vacancy rate has moved marginally since the same time last year.

^{Source: SQM Research}

Sydney's vacancy rate sits at 1.6 per cent, essentially flat on the 1.6 per cent recorded a year ago, with the absolute count of vacant properties rising from 11,482 to 11,957. That puts Sydney above the national rate of 1.3 per cent and broadly in line with Melbourne, but well above the tighter conditions in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Hobart, where vacancy rates remain well below 1 per cent. The city has more breathing room for renters than most capitals, though at 1.6 per cent, available stock is still low by historical measures.

Louis Christopher, Managing Director at SQM Research said in the latest rental market report:

"While the national vacancy rate has edged up to 1.3%, Australia's rental market remains exceptionally tight by historical standards. Most capital cities continue to record vacancy rates below one per cent or only marginally above, highlighting that rental supply remains insufficient to meet demand."

Sydney sits on the looser end of that national picture, with its 1.6 per cent vacancy rate giving renters marginally more choice than in the tightest cities. The rent growth the data shows reflects that same picture: even at the upper end of the vacancy range among capitals, Sydney is not producing enough rental stock to meaningfully ease competition. For investors, that supports continued income growth, even as the rate of rent increases is more measured here than in Perth, Hobart or Darwin.

Highest growth areas in Sydney

Sydney's strongest 12-month price gains in July 2026 came from the city's outer and fringe corridors, a pattern that stands out against the broader softening recorded across the metro area. The table below ranks the top 10 Statistical Area Level 3 (SA3) regions in Greater Sydney by annual percentage change, an SA3 is an ABS classification that typically groups several adjacent suburbs into a single statistical region.

^{Source: Cotality}

Highlights for Sydney’s high growth areas

• Richmond - Windsor: Ranked #1 with annual growth of +7.5 per cent and a median value of $1,007,861, Richmond - Windsor leads Sydney's growth table by holding gains that contrast sharply with the declines recorded closer to the city centre. Relative affordability and a semi-rural lifestyle appeal draw buyers to the far north-west, with suburbs such as North Richmond attracting steady owner-occupier interest.
• Wyong: Ranked #2 with +7.4 per cent annual growth and a median value of $954,707, the Wyong region on the Central Coast offers some of the lowest entry points in the Greater Sydney area, which has continued to pull buyers out of the metro market. Suburbs such as Bateau Bay and Toukley sit within a commutable distance of the city while offering a noticeably different price point and lifestyle.
• Camden: Ranked #3 with +7.0 per cent annual growth and a median value of $1,221,197, Camden has benefited from ongoing population growth in Sydney's outer south-west, where new residential development continues to draw young families. Suburbs such as Harrington Park and Spring Farm represent the newer end of the market where supply and demand are still reasonably balanced.
• Outer south-west fringe: Ranks #4 and #5, Wollondilly (+6.7 per cent, $1,227,130) and Penrith (+6.1 per cent, $1,057,034), both sit along Sydney's outermost growth corridors, where buyers seeking more land and lower prices per square metre have sustained demand. Penrith in particular has a broad base of established suburbs, with areas such as Glenmore Park and Jordan Springs adding to its appeal for first-home buyers and upgraders alike.
• Outer west and south-west mid-tier: Ranks #6 through #10, Campbelltown (NSW) (+5.9 per cent, $1,000,076), Blue Mountains (+5.5 per cent, $1,016,832), Mount Druitt (+5.4 per cent, $981,168), Bringelly - Green Valley (+5.4 per cent, $1,247,218) and St Marys (+4.5 per cent, $1,069,324), round out a broad band of positive annual growth concentrated entirely in the city's outer ring. These regions share a common thread: median values that sit well below the Sydney-wide figure, drawing buyers who have been priced out of middle-ring markets, with suburbs such as Katoomba, Oran Park and St Marys among the more recognisable pockets within this group.

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