Sydney property market data, trends, forecasts

Sydney property market news

The Sydney property market went through a turbulent time in 2022, but has since made a remarkable recovery. After a historic period of growth over the 2021 property boom that saw median values shoot up +25.3 per cent in just 12 months, Sydney house prices corrected at a sharp rate according to CoreLogic data. 2023 saw a sudden and unexpected turnaround, though, as home values returned to near-peak levels. Now, in 2024, things are moving at a slower pace

Sydney property prices - January 2024

Property typeMonth change (Jan 24)Quarter change (Jan 24)Annual change (Jan 24)Current median price (Jan 24)
All Sydney dwellings0.2%0.1%11.4%$1,122,430

Rising interest rates were the leading driver of the correction phase in a city where affordability has been stretched to the limit, and both sellers and buyers have been acting with caution until there is more clarity around when rates will settle. Fears around further interest rate hikes have now subsided, but the high rate environment seems to have taken some heat out of the market in 2024. 

Compared to 12 months prior, new listings for November were up +10.7 per cent in Sydney while total listings were up just +3.1 per cent, showing that sellers are finally coming back to the market but buyer demand has mostly been absorbing that new stock. Sales volumes got a major +11.1 per cent boost year on year in January, demonstrating that buyers are still out in force.

Currently, Sydney's median days on market (DOM) has settled around 35 for the quarter, down from 41 in January 2023.

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    House prices in Sydney

    The 2021 property boom saw Sydney house prices surge to record highs before reaching their peak early in 2022. Detached housing lost significant value rapidly since that point, but surprisingly strong and consistent growth returned over 2023. Gains have diminished in recent months, though.

    Sydney house prices - January 2024

    Property typeMonth change (Jan 24)Quarter change (Jan 24)Annual change (Jan 24)Current median price (Jan 24)
    Sydney houses0.3%0.2%12.8%$1,395,218

    The median house price in Sydney rallied in 2023 but lost momentum in the latter part of the year, growing by just +0.3 per cent in January 2024 to nearly $1.4 million, bringing quarterly gains to +0.2 per cent. Annual price changes remain in very strong positive territory at +12.8 per cent.

    Top 5 Sydney suburbs for first home buyers - houses

    Sydney's median house price is still incredibly high, so affordability is hard to come by for first home buyers. Here are some of our top picks for Sydney suburbs where you can buy well below the median house price. 

    Top Sydney suburbs under $1 million house price

    SuburbMedian house price
    St Helens Park, 2560$760,000
    North St Marys, 2760$765,000
    Hebersham, 2770$725,000
    Fairfield, 2165$975,000
    Jamisontown, 2566$866,000

    Unit prices in Sydney

    Unlike houses, the median unit price in Sydney grew at a more measured rate through the 2021 boom as the pandemic drove a ‘race for space’ mentality amongst buyers. The good news for unit owners was that apartment prices then fell at a more gentle pace throughout the downturn — but, like houses, prices were on the rise again throughout 2023. Things have stagnated so far in 2024, though. 

    Sydney unit prices - January 2024

    Property typeMonth change (Jan 24)Quarter change (Jan 24)Annual change (Jan 24)Current median price (Jan 24)
    Sydney units0.1%-0.1%7.7%$828,525

    Sydney's median unit price growth held close to flat in January, recording +0.1 per cent growth to just under $830,000. On a quarterly basis, things have also plateaued at -0.1 per cent, while annual change is a solid +7.7 per cent. Bolstered demand for units due to rising immigration, renewed investor interest and fresh activity from first home buyers priced out of the house market or the extremely tight rental market helped to drive growth throughout 2023.

    Top 5 Sydney suburbs for first home buyers - units

    Units offer better affordability for first home buyers in Sydney, although median prices are still substantial. Here are some of our top picks for Sydney suburbs where you can buy well below the median unit price. 

    Top Sydney suburbs under $800,000 unit price

    SuburbMedian unit price
    Eastlakes, 2018$640,000
    Hillsdale, 2036$665,000
    Greenwich, 2065$734,000
    Ashfield, 2131$735,000
    Canterbury, 2193$650,000

    Sydney property market forecast 2024-25

    2023 was a year of two halves. Prices skyrocketed in the first six months of the year before easing off later on and drifting into 2024 with negligible growth. So what are the big banks saying about what to expect in the year ahead?

    NAB's latest Sydney house price forecast now has Harbour City dwellings pushing up by +4.7 per cent in 2024 with +3.7 per cent to follow in 2025. 

    Westpac's Sydney real estate forecast now sees similarly strong growth for 2024 at +6.0 per cent with +4.0 per cent to come in 2025. 

    Big four banks' Sydney home price forecasts 2024-25

    BankSydney property prices 2024Sydney property prices 2025
    Westpac6.0%4.0%
    NAB4.7%3.7%
    ANZ6-7%7.0%
    CBA4.0%N/A

    Whether or not this growth can be achieved still largely depends on the supply and demand dynamic over the rest of the year. Interest rates had extensive impacts on the market and, while there is now a period of stability, the high rate environment is still causing stress for buyers and homeowners alike. 

    Currently, the RBA sits at 4.35 per cent, a long way up from the emergency-level 0.1 per cent rate borrowers were enjoying until May 2022. The banks mostly expect there will be no further hikes, with rate cuts to begin in the later stages of 2024 or early in 2025.

    Big four banks' cash rate forecast 2024-25

    BankPeak rate forecastMonth of peak rateRate cut forecastMonth of trough
    Westpac4.35%November 20232.85%December 2025
    NAB4.35%November 20233.10%November 2025
    CBA4.35%November 20232.85%June 2025
    ANZ4.35%November 20233.60%June 2025

    Sydney house prices have outperformed units throughout the rebound. Units and more affordable houses could be well-placed to deliver stronger gains throughout 2024, though.

    Units and entry-level houses are expected to appeal further to incoming investors and first home buyers as immigration has ramped up significantly, bringing additional demand to the rental market in particular.

    What are industry experts saying?

    Michael Yardney - Director of Metropole Property Strategists

    "Over the last few months the sentiment of both Sydney property buyers and seller is changing and buyers are pushing up the price of well-located A-grade homes and 'family-friendly' apartments which are still in short supply, but B-grade properties are taking longer to sell and informed buyers are avoiding C-grade properties.

    This flight to quality means that moving forward the various sectors of the Sydney real estate market will be segmented, which is a more 'normal' property market.

    The current strength and depth of the Sydney property market are also highlighted by strong auction clearance rates."

    Theo Chambers - CEO at Shore Financial

    "Demand is likely to remain strong, because it’s likely that external migration will remain high and that the rental market will remain very tight and continue pushing people into the sales market. At the same time, the supply of new listings is likely to remain constrained, because that’s been the trend in recent years and there’s nothing to suggest that will suddenly change.

    When you put all that together, there’s a reasonable chance the Sydney property market will be in boom mode in 2024."

    Sydney house prices graphs and charts

    CoreLogic's latest chart pack clearly shows the rapid acceleration, subsequent deceleration, and then rebound of the Sydney property market over the past four years.

    Copy Block Image
    Sydney's property price growth momentum has slowed in recent months. Source: CoreLogic

    The upswing during the 2021 boom was one of the most aggressive periods of growth in Australian history. The downturn was equally historic, with prices falling more than 13 per cent in 12 months, before the worm turned once again. 

    Looking at the wider context of the past 30 years, though, prices in Sydney have skyrocketed. The below chart shows Sydney house prices surging well beyond every other capital city, particularly over the past four years.

    Copy Block Image
    This Sydney house prices graph over the last three decades shows remarkable ongoing growth. Source: CoreLogic, Domain

    When taken into the perspective of even the past decade, Sydney homeowners have experienced huge gains to their property values. 

    Selling Sydney property

    According to Domain, Sydney's auction clearance rate has broadly stabilised after climbing up from its low point of 48 per cent in winter 2022. Days on market (DOM) in Sydney has also fallen as the market has strengthened.

    Sydney auction clearance rate68%6th April, 2024

    Sydney DOM35 days3 months to January 2024

    Sydney new listings+10.7%3 months to November 2023

    Sydney sales volumes+11.1%3 months to January 2024

    Sydney property investment

    The Sydney property market is looking promising for investors as prices remain well below peak levels, rental vacancies hover around record lows, asking rents continue to increase, and further demand is expected as immigration returned en masse in 2023. High interest rates have driven some investors out of the market, though, as ballooning mortgage repayments have outweighed higher rents in some cases.

    Sydney house rents+8.9%12 months to January 2024

    Sydney unit rents+10.9%12 months to January 2024

    Sydney rental yields3.0%January 2024

    Sydney vacancy rate1.3%January 2024

    Top 5 suburbs for Sydney investors

    BuyersBuyers' latest Investor Special Report detailed some of the top suburbs where Sydney investors could find strong potential. 

    BuyersBuyers' co-founder Pete Wargent explained that, thanks to immigration, "there will be a lot of demand for rentals which will bring investors back in. Most of the picks are driven with that dynamic in mind."

    Top suburbs for investors to buy units in Sydney

    SuburbRegionPostcodeProperty typeNo. of propertiesMedian price ($)
    RandwickEastern Suburbs2031Unit10,111$1,204,902
    NarrabeenNorthern Beaches2101Unit2,664$1,332,929
    DrummoyneInner West2047Unit3,912$1,249,934
    Neutral BayNorth Sydney2089Unit4,958$1,398,399
    Surry HillsInner South2010Unit7,587$985,685

    The report noted that "the best opportunities in the unit market are set to be in the established housing market rather than for expensive new builds. Look for boutique apartment blocks with a high land value content and units with a point of scarcity, such as a view.

    Looking to invest in Sydney property? 

    Sydney property FAQs

    • Will the Sydney property market crash?

      Considering there is significant uncertainty about inflation and interest rates, Sydney property market forecasts are wide-ranging. Get the full picture and more well-rounded understanding of what's to come in our article, will the Australian property market crash?

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    • Should I sell my Sydney house now or wait?

      Selling your property is a huge decision that deserves all your careful consideration weighing up the advantages and disadvantages of either scenario. 

      Even if the market feels uncertain, it’s important to remember that it’s all relative and the market doesn’t stop. There will always be properties being listed and buyers out there wanting to purchase a home. 

      For a clearer picture of what the market is looking like and whether it's a good time to be listing your Sydney property, check out our article: should I sell my house now or wait?

       

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    • Where are the top growth suburbs in Sydney?

      According to the latest CoreLogic data, more than a dozen Sydney suburbs experienced growth of more than +15 per cent in the six months to August 2022. The median house price in Austral surged by a massive +49.3 per cent, while units in Eastwood, Sans Souci and Guildford gained +30.6 per cent, +21.2 per cent and +20.4 per cent respectively. 

      Overall, Sydney units look to be outperforming houses in the latter stages of 2022. 

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