Melbourne property market data, trends, forecasts

By Andy Webb · Data to September 2026 · Updated October 2026

Melbourne property market news - key takeaways

• Values continue to ease: Melbourne dwelling values slipped -0.7 per cent in September 2026, the latest in a run of monthly declines as higher borrowing costs and softer buyer demand weigh on prices.
• Stock building up: Total listings in the Melbourne property market are +7.6 per cent higher than a year ago, even as fewer new homes are listed, because properties are taking longer to sell.
• Auction results soft: Melbourne's auction clearance rate sat at 50.4 per cent in the week ending 4 October 2026, a buyer-favourable result that often means fewer competing bidders on auction day.
• Rents still rising: Melbourne rents rose +4.9 per cent over the year, below the national pace, while a vacancy rate of 1.9 per cent gives tenants a wider range of homes to choose from.
• Higher rates weigh on buyers: The RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.60 per cent in September 2026, reducing how much buyers can borrow, and the banks are split on whether another rise follows in November 2026.

Melbourne property price movements

Values across the Melbourne property market continued to ease through September 2026. Houses and units both recorded declines. Higher borrowing costs and softer buyer demand remain the main forces at work.

Melbourne property prices - September 2026

The typical Melbourne home value slipped -0.7 per cent in September 2026. The quarterly figure is the more notable result, with values falling -3.4 per cent over the quarter.

^{Source: Cotality, data to September 2026}

The median value of Melbourne homes fell by around $5,500 over the month, to $780,550. Values are now -6.2 per cent lower than a year ago and remain -7.5 per cent below their March 2022 peak. These conditions favour buyers, who are paying less than at any point in the past year.

Tim Lawless, Research Director at Cotality, said in the September 2026 Home Value Index:

"97% of capital city suburbs were down in value over the three months to end of September, highlighting the broad-based scope of this negative housing cycle."

Mr Lawless's point places Melbourne's -3.4 per cent quarterly fall within a wide national pattern rather than a local one-off. For Melbourne owners, the direction of values reflects conditions shared across the capitals.

House prices in Melbourne

Melbourne house prices eased -0.9 per cent in September 2026, taking the median house value to $915,119. Over the quarter, house values fell -3.9 per cent, and they are -7.3 per cent lower than a year ago.

^{Source: Cotality, data to September 2026}

That monthly move equates to a fall of around $8,300 in the median house value. Houses recorded larger declines than units across every time frame, with the annual gap between the two sitting at 3.5 percentage points. This suggests higher price points are feeling the squeeze on borrowing capacity more sharply.

Unit prices in Melbourne

Melbourne unit prices edged lower by -0.3 per cent in September 2026, to a median of $624,740. Unit values fell -2.2 per cent over the quarter and sit -3.8 per cent below their level a year ago.

^{Source: Cotality, data to September 2026}

The median unit value dropped by around $1,900 over the month. Units have held up better than houses, with a quarterly fall of -2.2 per cent against -3.9 per cent for houses. Their lower entry price may be keeping them within reach of buyers whose budgets have tightened.

Melbourne property market forecasts 2026-2027

Australia's Big Four banks, CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ, publish house price forecasts as part of their regular economic research. Their views for Melbourne over 2026-2027 vary, most of all on how soon values might start to recover.

All four banks expect Melbourne values to fall across 2026, with ANZ the most pessimistic at -9.2 per cent and CBA the least at -7.0 per cent. The picture shifts in 2027, when three of the four expect values to start rising again, led by Westpac at +5.0 per cent. ANZ is the exception, expecting values to fall further in 2027, which makes the Melbourne house price forecast for that year far less settled than for this one.

Consultancy KPMG takes a milder view than the Big Four for 2026, forecasting -5.0 per cent for Melbourne house values, with unit values at +0.4 per cent.

RBA cash rate forecast 2026-2027

The RBA lifted the cash rate again in September, its fourth rise of 2026, as inflation held above its 2 to 3 per cent target band. The banks are split on what comes next, with ANZ and Westpac each expecting one more rise in November while CBA and NAB expect no further rises this year. The table below sets out each bank's view.

The cash rate is 4.60 per cent. The major banks' forecasts for the next move:

^{Source: ANZ, CBA, NAB and Westpac forecasts, as at 8 October 2026}

What this means for the Melbourne market

Higher repayments mean Melbourne buyers can borrow less than they could at the start of the year. Cotality estimates the four rate rises since February have cut a median-income household's borrowing capacity by about $90,000, or roughly 9 per cent of its purchasing power. That squeeze is more than offsetting the relief lower prices would otherwise bring, with Melbourne dwelling values recording an annual change of -6.2 per cent.

Cotality's figures show houses have felt the rate rises more than units, with an annual change of -7.3 per cent for house values against -3.8 per cent for units. Lower entry prices keep units within reach of more first-home buyers when borrowing power is tight. Whether the 2027 recovery most banks expect arrives on time is likely to depend on whether rates stay where they are or rise once more.

Helpful resource: Our simple guide to tracking market trends and data will walk you through everything you need to know to be able to read the market and make a smarter selling decision.

Melbourne house prices graphs and charts

Melbourne's house price growth over the last 5 years reached its high point in March 2022, and according to Cotality's latest figures, dwelling values eased -0.7 per cent in September, with a fall of -3.4 per cent over the quarter and -6.2 per cent over the year. The median dwelling value now sits at $780,550, a change of -7.5 per cent from that March 2022 high.

The more recent declines have tracked rising borrowing costs, with the cash rate at 4.6 per cent after four increases this year, which reduces how much buyers can borrow even as prices come down. Homes are also taking longer to sell, at a median of 42 days compared with 28 a year ago, and that build-up of unsold stock has given buyers more choice and more room to negotiate.

Melbourne property 30 year property price graph

This recent “slow grind” back toward prior highs sits alongside Melbourne property prices growth over the last 10 years, where strong long-run gains were driven by falling interest rates, population growth and constrained supply that together pushed the median much higher; OpenAgent’s historical review shows Melbourne’s median house price rising to roughly $1.1 million by 2025, reflecting that decade-plus of solid appreciation. 

Over the past 30 years, Melbourne has repeatedly moved through booms and corrections, and today, homeowners are more cautious while still supported by tight rental markets and ongoing population inflows; supply shortfalls and construction constraints mean demand pressures remain, even as higher borrowing costs temper how fast prices can climb.

Melbourne selling statistics

Selling conditions in Melbourne have shifted toward buyers over the past year. Homes are taking longer to sell, fewer fresh listings are coming to market, and the stock already advertised is building up as a result. For sellers, that makes pricing and preparation more important than it was a year ago.

Want to know what your own property is worth? Get a free value estimate for your address.

Melbourne sales volume and days on market

Melbourne sales volumes fell -5.0 per cent year on year. The median home took 42 days to sell, up from 28 days a year earlier. That is slightly longer than the combined capitals median of 39 days and the national median of 41 days.

^{Source: Cotality, data to September 2026}

Melbourne's fall in sales volume is smaller than the -9.1 per cent recorded across the combined capitals and the -6.4 per cent nationally. That suggests completed sales have held up comparatively well. Selling times are a different matter, though, and with homes taking about two weeks longer to sell than a year ago, buyers have more time to compare options while sellers should plan for a longer campaign.

Melbourne new and total listings

New listings in Melbourne fell -19.5 per cent year on year. Total listings rose +7.6 per cent over the same period.

^{Source: Cotality, data to September 2026}

Fewer homes are being newly listed, yet the overall pool of stock is larger, because properties are staying on the market for longer before they sell. For buyers, that means more choice and less pressure to decide quickly. For sellers, it means more competing listings, which is one of the reasons Melbourne dwelling values eased -0.7 per cent over the month.

Melbourne vendor discount and auction clearance rates

Vendor discount measures the gap between a property's first advertised price and the price it finally sells for, shown as a percentage. The auction clearance rate is the share of reported auctions that end in a sale, whether on the day or shortly before or after. Read together, the two show how closely sale results are landing to sellers' expectations across both private sales and auctions.

Melbourne vendor discount

^{Source: Cotality, data to September 2026}

The median vendor discount in Melbourne widened to -3.8 per cent, from -3.0 per cent a year earlier. Applied to Melbourne's median dwelling value of $780,550, that discount works out to about $29,661 below the initial asking price. The wider discount means sellers are accepting offers further below their asking price than they were a year ago.

Melbourne auction clearance rates

^{Source: Cotality, week ending 4 October 2026}

Melbourne's clearance rate was 50.4 per cent in the week ending 4 October 2026, with 333 of 661 reported auctions selling, 241 passed in and 87 withdrawn. 

A result near 50 per cent is a soft, buyer-favourable reading, well below the 65 to 70 per cent range that typically signals a market in balance. Conditions like these mean buyers often face fewer competing bidders, and sellers heading to auction benefit from setting a realistic reserve.

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Melbourne property investing

Melbourne's rental market is sending different signals to renters and investors. Rents are still rising, but at a gentler pace than in most capitals, and the pool of available rentals has grown. For investors, lower home values have lifted the income a property returns relative to its price.

Helpful resource: Estimate the capital gains tax on a sale with our free calculator.

Melbourne rental market

The table below compares rental conditions across the capitals, regional markets and the nation as a whole. It covers gross rental yields, which measure a year's rent as a share of a property's value, along with the annual change in rents for houses and units.

^{Source: Cotality, data to September 2026}

Melbourne rents rose +4.9 per cent over the year, below the national rise of +5.5 per cent and among the slower rates of growth across the capitals. Houses at +4.9 per cent and units at +4.8 per cent moved much the same. The city's gross yield of 4.1 per cent sits among the higher results of the capitals and above the national 3.9 per cent, which reflects rents continuing to climb while home values have fallen.

Melbourne vacancy rates

The vacancy rate is the share of rental properties sitting empty and available to lease, so it is a useful gauge of how much pressure renters face. A lower rate means fewer options for tenants and more scope for landlords to lift rents. Melbourne's vacancy rate was 1.9 per cent, compared with 1.8 per cent a year ago.

^{Source: SQM Research, September 2026}

A change of +0.1 percentage points over the year means Melbourne's vacancy rate is essentially flat. The number of vacant rentals did rise, to 10,127 properties from 9,407, and the rate remains well above the national 1.4 per cent and among the highest of the capitals. For tenants, that points to more choice than in most other capitals, even though conditions have barely shifted over the year.

Louis Christopher, Managing Director at SQM Research, said in SQM Research's latest weekly update:

"The national vacancy rate rising to 1.4% suggests we are beginning to see a gradual easing in rental conditions, led by Sydney and Melbourne, where available rental stock has increased over the past year."

Mr Christopher's view places Melbourne near the front of a gradual shift in rental conditions, with extra stock that in practice tends to give tenants more room to negotiate. If that trend holds, investors may find less scope for large rent increases, which fits Melbourne's below-national rent growth. The higher yield on offer comes from lower values rather than faster rent rises, so income expectations are best based on current rents.

Highest growth areas in Melbourne

Melbourne values are lower over the past year, but some parts of the city have held up far better than others. The table below ranks the top 10 Statistical Area Level 3 (SA3) regions in Greater Melbourne by annual change in median value for September 2026. An SA3 is an ABS region that typically covers several adjacent suburbs.

^{Source: Cotality}

Highlights for Melbourne’s high growth areas

• Sunbury: Ranked #1 with annual growth of +1.3 per cent and a median value of $728,748, Sunbury is one of only two Melbourne SA3s to post a gain over the year. The region takes in suburbs such as Sunbury and Diggers Rest, and offers a semi-rural setting with rail links to the city at a price point below many established suburbs.
• Maribyrnong: Ranked #2 with +0.5 per cent annual growth and a median of $654,455, Maribyrnong held essentially flat while most of the city declined. Its inner-west location close to the CBD, with a mix of period homes and more affordable apartments, continues to draw buyers to suburbs such as Footscray and Yarraville.
• Brimbank: Ranked #3 with an annual change of -0.5 per cent and a median value of $701,519, Brimbank's values were little changed over the year. The region, home to suburbs such as Sunshine and St Albans, has been supported by relative affordability and transport investment in the area.
• Inner city and outer corridors: Ranks #4 through #6, Melbourne City (-0.5 per cent, $504,340), Casey - South (-0.9 per cent, $775,773) and Melton - Bacchus Marsh (-0.9 per cent, $659,988), each eased by less than 1 per cent over the year. The group pairs the apartment-heavy city centre, including Southbank, with outer growth corridors in the south-east and west, where suburbs such as Caroline Springs offer entry-level prices for families.
• Outer west, north and south-east: Ranks #7 through #9, Wyndham (-2.1 per cent, $682,867), Casey - North (-2.5 per cent, $808,221) and Tullamarine - Broadmeadows (-2.5 per cent, $702,623), each fell over the year. These are larger moves than the regions above, but still a smaller fall than Melbourne's citywide result. The group covers large family-focused suburbs such as Point Cook and Berwick.

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