The Reserve Bank's next rate decision lands on 11 August, and the data most likely to decide it won't exist until 29 July.

That's when the June quarter inflation figures arrive, and the RBA has made it clear it wants to see them before moving. Until then, every forecast is an educated guess, and the educated guessers still don't agree.

What's changed since the June hold

The RBA left the cash rate at 4.35 per cent in June, the first pause after hikes in February, March and May unwound all of last year's cuts.

The hold itself wasn't the real development, though. The forecasts moved with it.

NAB, which had been tipping another hike in August, has since joined CBA and ANZ in calling 4.35 per cent the peak. All three now expect the rate to stay put for the rest of 2026.

Westpac is the last bank standing on the other side, forecasting hikes in August and September that would take the rate to 4.85 per cent. Its view carries weight given chief economist Luci Ellis spent years as an assistant governor at the RBA.

And Westpac isn't alone outside the big four. A recent Finder survey found 55 per cent of economists still expect at least one more rise this year, with most pointing to August.

Why a rate hike is still on the table

The case for another rise comes down to one stubborn number. Underlying inflation, the trimmed mean measure the RBA targets, rose to 3.6 per cent in May, up from 3.4 the month before.

Headline inflation eased to 4.0 per cent over the same period, which looks like progress. The measure the RBA actually watches is moving the wrong way.

The RBA's own language has kept the door open, too. Its June statement said the board will do what it considers necessary, "including increasing the cash rate target further if required."

Why a hold is the base case

The argument for staying put leans on the labour market. Unemployment reached 4.5 per cent in April, its highest level since late 2021, and consumer spending is slowing much as the RBA intended.

Three consecutive hikes take time to fully bite, and the majority view is that the board can afford to wait and watch the squeeze do its work.

That's why the 29 July inflation data matters so much. A soft print all but locks in a hold, while an ugly one puts August firmly in play.

The date nobody disagrees on

Here's the part of the outlook where the forecasters have actually converged, and it's arguably the most useful fact in the debate.

All four major banks now have rate cuts pencilled in, and none of them before 2027. CBA and ANZ see the rate easing to 3.85 per cent by the end of next year, NAB to 3.60, and even Westpac only pencils in relief after its extra hikes have done their job.

Whatever happens in August, the era of waiting a few months for cheaper money is over. Anyone holding out for rate relief is holding out for something more than a year away.

What this means on the ground

The rate story shows up in buyer budgets before it shows up in prices. Canstar analysis puts the borrowing capacity lost to this year's hikes at roughly $25,000 for a single average income earner and $49,000 for a couple, with one more hike stretching that towards $37,000 and $73,000.

That's the practical answer to why buyers who were pre-approved in January are shopping in a lower bracket in July, and why a further hike would tighten budgets again.

For vendors, the honest read is this: nobody, not the RBA, not the banks, can offer certainty about the next move. What is certain is that relief isn't arriving this year on anyone's forecast.

The good news is that a sale has never depended on predicting the cash rate. Sellers can't control what the board does on 11 August, but they can control how their home is priced against the current market, how it's presented, and the quality of the campaign behind it.

Those are the levers that decide results in any rate environment. The vendors who focus on them, rather than on forecasts even the experts can't agree on, are the ones giving themselves the best chance of a strong outcome in this one.