Sydney property market data, trends, forecasts

By Andy Webb · Data to September 2026 · Updated October 2026

Sydney property market news - key takeaways

• Values extend their decline: Sydney dwelling values fell -1.4 per cent in September, with both houses and units lower and the median now sitting well below its February 2026 peak.
• Unsold stock building up: Total listings in the Sydney property market are +9.0 per cent higher than a year ago even as fewer new homes are listed, suggesting properties are staying on the market longer.
• Auction results favour buyers: Sydney's auction clearance rate was 49.3 per cent for the week ending 4 October, a soft result that means less competition on the day and more room for buyers to negotiate.
• Rental pressure easing: Sydney's vacancy rate rose to 1.8 per cent from 1.3 per cent a year ago, giving renters more choice while rents still rose +4.4 per cent over the year.
• Banks split on rates: The RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.60 per cent in September, and ANZ and Westpac expect one more rise in November while CBA and NAB expect it to hold.

Sydney property price movements

Values across the Sydney property market continued to fall in the latest month, with both houses and units recording declines. Higher borrowing costs remain a key factor behind the softer result.

Sydney property prices - September 2026

Sydney home values fell -1.4 per cent in September 2026, extending the quarterly decline to -4.9 per cent. The largest move is in the annual figure, with values down -7.0 per cent on a year ago.

^{Source: Cotality, data to September 2026}

The monthly fall took around $17,000 off the median value of a Sydney home. Values now sit -8.6 per cent below their February 2026 peak. Four cash rate increases this year have reduced how much households can borrow, which goes a long way to explaining why prices have fallen since then.

Tim Lawless, Research Director at Cotality, said in the September 2026 Home Value Index:

"97% of capital city suburbs were down in value over the three months to end of September, highlighting the broad-based scope of this negative housing cycle."

Mr Lawless's comment covers capital city suburbs nationally rather than Sydney alone. Sydney's own figures follow the same broad pattern, with houses and units both recording declines over the quarter.

House prices in Sydney

Sydney house prices fell -1.6 per cent in September 2026, broadly in line with the result across all homes. Over the quarter, house values dropped -5.6 per cent, and they have declined -8.2 per cent over the year.

^{Source: Cotality, data to September 2026}
The median house value of $1,466,060 is around $23,800 lower than a month earlier. Houses have recorded larger declines than units across the month, quarter and year, and the annual fall of -8.2 per cent is more than twice the unit result. This suggests reduced borrowing power has weighed most heavily on the higher-priced end of the market.

Unit prices in Sydney

Sydney unit prices fell -1.0 per cent in September 2026, taking the quarterly decline to -3.0 per cent. Over the year, unit values have declined -3.8 per cent.

^{Source: Cotality, data to September 2026}

The median unit value of $867,597 is around $8,800 lower than in August. Units have held up better than houses over every period, with the annual gap between the two at 4.4 percentage points. That gap tells us lower-priced homes have kept their value more steadily while borrowing capacity is under pressure.

Sydney property market forecasts 2026

Australia's Big Four banks, CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ, publish house price forecasts as part of their regular economic research. Their views on Sydney over 2026-2027 differ, mostly on how long the current falls will last and when values will start to recover.

The Sydney house price forecast for 2026 points one way, with all four banks expecting values to finish the year lower. Westpac and NAB are the most pessimistic for 2026 at -10.0 per cent, while CBA expects a smaller fall of -6.0 per cent. For 2027 the banks are split: three expect a return to modest growth, but ANZ alone forecasts a further fall of -2.9 per cent.

Consultancy KPMG takes a milder view than the Big Four, forecasting -4.4 per cent for Sydney house values across 2026, with unit values flat.

RBA cash rate forecast 2026-2027

The Reserve Bank raised the cash rate again in September, its fourth rise of 2026, because inflation has stayed above its target range. The major banks are divided on what comes next, with ANZ and Westpac both expecting a further rise in November, while CBA and NAB expect the rate to stay on hold. The table below sets out each bank's view.

The cash rate is 4.60 per cent. The major banks' forecasts for the next move:

^{Source: ANZ, CBA, NAB and Westpac forecasts, as at 8 October 2026}

What this means for the Sydney market

A higher cash rate pushes up variable mortgage repayments and reduces how much a lender is willing to approve. In Sydney, where home values are among the highest in the country, that squeeze is felt more sharply because each rise applies to a larger loan. Lower prices have made homes cheaper, but for many buyers they have not fully made up for the smaller loan they can now get.

If November brings another rise, the more cautious forecasts for 2027 become more likely, while a steady cash rate supports the banks expecting modest growth. Houses have recorded larger falls than units over the past year, which suggests the higher-priced end of the market is most sensitive to tighter borrowing limits. Conditions currently favour buyers, with more homes to choose from and sellers more open to negotiation, which can help first-home buyers whose borrowing power has shrunk.

Helpful resource: Our simple guide to tracking market trends and data will walk you through everything you need to know to be able to read the market and make a smarter selling decision.

Sydney house prices graphs and charts

Sydney's house price growth over the last 5 years reached its high point in February 2026, and dwelling values have fallen since, dropping -1.4 per cent in September, -4.9 per cent over the quarter and -7.0 per cent over the year, according to Cotality's latest figures. The median dwelling value now sits at $1,198,596, a change of -8.6 per cent from that February high.

The change in direction lines up with the interest rate cycle. Repeated rate rises through 2026 have taken the cash rate to 4.6 per cent and cut how much buyers can borrow, and that has cooled demand faster than lower prices have made homes easier to afford. Cotality data shows Sydney homes now take a median of 46 days to sell, compared with 29 days a year ago, while unsold stock continues to build up.

Sydney property 30 year property price graph

Sydney property prices growth over the last 10 years has been strong overall: a large upswing into 2021 was followed by a correction in 2022 and a steady rebuild of momentum through 2023–2025, demonstrating long-run demand, tight supply and the outsized role of interest-rate moves in recent cycles.  

Over the past three decades Sydney has recorded some of the biggest cumulative gains in Australia, but the path has been boom–bust–recovery cycles driven by changes in credit, investor activity and population growth; today homeowners feel more cautious than in 2021 while many buyers are still watching rates and affordability, balancing a desire to buy with a need for certainty about repayments and timing.

Sydney selling statistics

Selling conditions in Sydney have shifted toward buyers over the past year. Fewer homes are changing hands, and those that do sell are taking longer to find a buyer. Sellers are also accepting offers further below their initial asking price, while auction results have settled at levels that give buyers more room to negotiate.

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Sydney sales volume and days on market

Sydney's sales volume fell -9.8 per cent year on year, a slightly larger drop than the -9.1 per cent recorded across the combined capitals and the -6.4 per cent fall nationally. The typical Sydney home now takes 46 days to sell, up from 29 days a year ago. That is longer than the combined capitals median of 39 days and the national median of 41 days.

^{Source: Cotality, data to September 2026}

Sydney's fall in sales activity is broadly in line with the combined capitals result but steeper than the national figure. Selling times tell a clearer story, with Sydney homes sitting on the market five to seven days longer than the broader averages. 

Buyers have more time to compare options and negotiate, which means sellers should plan for a longer campaign than they might have expected a year ago.

Sydney new and total listings

New listings in Sydney dropped -21.0 per cent year on year. Total listings rose +9.0 per cent over the same period.

^{Source: Cotality, data to September 2026}

Fewer homes are coming to market, yet the overall pool of stock has grown. That combination suggests properties are staying listed for longer rather than selling quickly, which matches the rise in days on market and the monthly fall in values covered in the price section.

For buyers, this means a wider choice of homes. For sellers, it means more competition from properties already on the market.

Sydney vendor discount and auction clearance rates

Vendor discount is the gap between a property's first advertised price and the price it finally sells for. The auction clearance rate is the share of homes taken to auction that sell on the day, before or soon after. Read together, they show how close sellers' expectations are to what buyers are prepared to pay, both in private sales and under the hammer.

Sydney vendor discount

^{Source: Cotality, data to September 2026}

Sydney's median vendor discount widened to -4.8 per cent, from -3.0 per cent a year ago. On a home priced at the city's median dwelling value, that gap is now a meaningful sum. Sellers are accepting offers further below their asking price than they were a year ago, which reflects longer selling times and a larger pool of competing stock.

Sydney auction clearance rates

^{Source: Cotality, week ending 4 October 2026}

Sydney's clearance rate was 49.3 per cent for the week ending 4 October, with 147 homes sold from 298 reported results and 58 withdrawn before auction day. A result below 50 per cent points to soft conditions that favour buyers. Competition at auctions has thinned, so buyers are less likely to face multiple bidders pushing prices up on the day.

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Sydney property investing

Sydney's rental market is giving renters a little more breathing room than it did a year ago, with more homes available to lease. For investors, rents are still rising, but more slowly than in most other capitals, and that income has to be weighed against falling home values.

Helpful resource: Estimate the capital gains tax on a sale with our free calculator.

Sydney rental market

The table below compares rental conditions across the capital cities, the regional markets and the nation as a whole. It shows each area's gross rental yield, which is the yearly rent as a share of the property's value, along with the annual change in rents for houses and units.

^{Source: Cotality, data to September 2026}

Sydney rents rose +4.4 per cent over the year, below the national pace of +5.5 per cent, with house rents up +4.9 per cent and unit rents up +3.7 per cent. The city's gross rental yield of 3.4 per cent is among the lowest of the capitals and sits under the combined capitals figure of 3.7 per cent. That low yield reflects how high Sydney values have run relative to rents, even after the recent falls in prices.

Sydney vacancy rates

The vacancy rate measures the share of rental homes sitting empty and available to lease, so a lower figure means renters are competing harder for each property. SQM data shows that Sydney's vacancy rate rose to 1.8 per cent from 1.3 per cent a year ago, an increase of +0.5 percentage points. That works out to 13,331 vacant properties, up from 9,617 properties.

^{Source: SQM Research, September 2026}

Sydney's rate now sits above the national figure of 1.4 per cent and is among the highest of the capitals, alongside Melbourne and Canberra. More empty rentals and slower annual rent growth suggest the pressure on Sydney tenants has eased over the year. For investors, it means finding a tenant may take a little longer, with less room to lift rents.

Louis Christopher, Managing Director at SQM Research said in the latest rental market report:

"Sydney is the market to watch. Vacancies are well up on a year ago, and while house rents rose over the month, unit rents fell. That divergence suggests rental pressures are beginning to ease, starting with the unit market."

Mr Christopher's view points to Sydney's unit market as the place where rental conditions could soften first, based on SQM's monthly asking-rent measure. On Cotality's annual series, both house and unit rents remain higher than a year ago, so the easing in that view is an early signal rather than an established trend. For unit investors, realistic rent expectations and competitive pricing at lease renewal are likely to matter more over the coming months.

Highest growth areas in Sydney

Values have moved lower across much of Sydney over the past year, so the regions at the top of this list are the ones that held their ground best. The table below ranks Greater Sydney's Statistical Area Level 3 (SA3) regions by annual percentage change in September 2026. An SA3 is an ABS region that typically covers several neighbouring suburbs.

^{Source: Cotality, data to September 2026}

Highlights for Sydney’s high growth areas

• Wollondilly: Ranked #1 with annual growth of +2.0 per cent and a median value of $1,145,585, Wollondilly led the city on annual growth. Its semi-rural setting on Sydney's south-western fringe takes in townships such as Picton and Tahmoor.
• Wyong: Ranked #2 with +1.3 per cent annual growth and a median of $915,725, Wyong on the Central Coast edged higher over the year. Its median sits well below the citywide figure, and it takes in lakeside suburbs such as Toukley.
• Camden: Ranked #3 with +1.2 per cent annual growth and a median of $1,169,414, Camden recorded a modest rise. The region sits in the south-western growth corridor and takes in newer family housing in suburbs such as Narellan and Mount Annan.
• Outer west and south-west: Ranks #4 through #6 are Richmond - Windsor at +0.6 per cent ($962,730), Fairfield at -0.3 per cent ($1,193,850) and Campbelltown (NSW) at -0.5 per cent ($955,028). Richmond - Windsor edged up, while Fairfield and Campbelltown (NSW) slipped by less than 1 per cent, leaving all three close to flat over the year. Richmond - Windsor and Campbelltown (NSW), which takes in suburbs such as Ingleburn, both have medians below the citywide figure.
• Blue Mountains, Auburn and Penrith: Ranks #7 through #9 are Blue Mountains at -0.7 per cent ($981,137), Auburn at -1.5 per cent ($810,209) and Penrith at -1.9 per cent ($1,021,576). Blue Mountains eased slightly, while Auburn and Penrith fell by between 1 and 2 per cent. All three still rank among the city's better-performing regions, with Penrith suburbs such as Jordan Springs offering newer family housing.

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