Sydney property market data, trends, forecasts

Sydney property market news - key takeaways

• Price movements: Sydney property market recorded a monthly +0.2 per cent lift in January, leaving values -0.1 per cent below the November 2025 peak, with lower-priced houses doing most of the heavy lifting in the rebound, as shown in the latest housing value data.
• Supply and demand: Listings remain well below typical levels, keeping competition high and supporting prices despite affordability constraints; advertised stock was materially lower than the five‑year average into early 2026.
• Selling market: Auction activity returned a strong weekly clearance rate of 76 per cent in the week of 1 February 2026, signalling firm bidder interest at recent weekend auctions.
• Rental market: Vacancy tightened to 1.5 per cent in January and combined asking rents were around $900.52 per week, up +6.6 per cent over the year and monthly +1.7 per cent, keeping rental pressure on local households.
• Financing and rates: The RBA’s 25 basis‑point cash rate rise in early February (to 3.85 per cent) is likely to temper buyer enthusiasm in Sydney by increasing borrowing costs and tightening serviceability for marginal purchasers.

Sydney property price movements

The Sydney property market remains in modest growth, with prices rebounding slightly after a late‑2025 dip. Tight listings and stronger demand at lower price points are supporting gains, though affordability and recent rate moves are likely to limit momentum.

Sydney property prices - February 2026

In the data recorded in January 2026, overall property values in Sydney rose +0.2 per cent for the month, +0.2 per cent over the quarter and +6.4 per cent over the year.

^{Source: Cotality}

This monthly rise followed a -0.1 per cent fall in December 2025, so the January result represents a gentle rebound into the new year. Recent gains have been concentrated at the lower end of the market while higher‑priced segments have shown weaker outcomes, a pattern highlighted by Cotality.

House prices in Sydney

Houses led the lift in January 2026, rising +0.3 per cent for the month, +0.2 per cent over the quarter and +7.6 per cent over the year.

^{Source: Cotality}
The median house value was $1,598,819, which is about $4,796 higher than a month earlier. The Sydney housing market has been driven by intense competition for more affordable detached homes, pushing house prices toward the $1.6 million mark even as upper‑end segments show less strength. 

Unit prices in Sydney

Units rose +0.2 per cent in January 2026, +0.4 per cent over the quarter and +3.3 per cent over the year.

^{Source: Cotality}

The median unit value was $903,210, around $1,806 higher than the prior month. Sydney unit prices have generally trailed houses in recent periods, confirming a split between housing types, with tighter supply and entry‑level demand still supporting modest apartment gains.

Sydney property market forecasts 2026

Australia’s big four banks routinely publish house price forecasts as part of their economic research to support mortgage‐lending decisions, manage risk and showcase their market expertise. Here is what is expected around the country in 2026.

^{Source: Westpac Housing Pulse, NAB Residential Property Survey, CBA Economic Update, ANZ Housing Outlook.} 

Sydney’s forecasts sit below some of the stronger mid‑sized capitals but above a few smaller markets, reflecting a mixed outlook across the country. These Sydney property market predictions point to steady, not runaway, gains as tight supply and stretched affordability push activity toward lower‑priced segments.

Sydney home price forecasts 2026

Westpac expects Sydney prices to rise by about +5 per cent, NAB forecasts around +4.2 per cent, CBA projects roughly +3 per cent, and ANZ sees a smaller rise of +2.5 per cent. These differences show how each bank views local demand, supply and sensitivity to higher borrowing costs — Westpac and NAB are more optimistic about a rebound, while ANZ is more cautious. 

The banks’ forecasts sit against a backdrop of tight advertised stock and affordability limits in Sydney, which helps explain why gains are expected to be steady rather than sharp, and recent RBA moves to lift the cash rate will be an offset to faster growth.

RBA cash rate forecast 2026

On 3 February 2026, the RBA raised the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.85 per cent, noting that inflationary pressures had resurged (CPI was around +3.8 per cent) and demand was running strong. Most analysts had anticipated a hike given the recent uptick in inflation, although some saw it as a cautious first step pending further data. Below are the major banks’ updated forecasts (based on their latest published views heading into 2026):

• CBA: Forecasts no further hikes for 2026, holding at 3.85 per cent.
• Westpac: Forecasts no further hikes for 2026, holding at 3.85 per cent.
• NAB: Forecasts one more hike in May, taking the cash rate to 4.10 per cent.
• ANZ: Forecasts no further hikes for 2026, holding at 3.85 per cent.

What this means for the Sydney market

Sydney’s market is highly sensitive to interest rates because prices are very high and households carry large mortgages. A 25 basis point hike will tend to dampen buyer sentiment. Historically, when rates rise, Sydney’s price growth usually softens or stalls. Right now, Sydney already faces affordability constraints. This rate rise will likely slow activity further. It may prevent any sharp rebound, keeping prices flat or only modestly up. 

Sellers may need more patience, and bidding competition could ease. In short, expect momentum to taper. In the past, Sydney has seen muted gains or slight declines when rates go up and housing costs bite.

Sydney house prices graphs and charts

Sydney house price growth over the last 5 years has moved from a sharp COVID-era boom into a steadier upswing and, more recently, a gentle recovery. As of February 2026, dwelling values rose by +0.2 per cent in the month, +0.2 per cent over the quarter and +6.4 per cent over the past 12 months, leaving values -0.1 per cent below the November 2025 record, as per Cotality’s latest figures.

The five-year chart shows Sydney’s 2021 boom gave way to a meaningful but relatively short downturn in 2022, with the market recovering through 2023 into a “grind higher” pattern rather than another rapid surge. Cotality’s analysis highlights that low advertised stock has helped limit the depth of falls and kept price gains subdued but consistent across 2023–2025.

Sydney property 30 year property price graph

Sydney property prices growth over the last 10 years has been strong overall: a large upswing into 2021 was followed by a correction in 2022 and a steady rebuild of momentum through 2023–2025, demonstrating long-run demand, tight supply and the outsized role of interest-rate moves in recent cycles.  

Over the past three decades Sydney has recorded some of the biggest cumulative gains in Australia, but the path has been boom–bust–recovery cycles driven by changes in credit, investor activity and population growth; today homeowners feel more cautious than in 2021 while many buyers are still watching rates and affordability, balancing a desire to buy with a need for certainty about repayments and timing.

Sydney selling statistics

Sydney’s selling indicators show a market that is still moving, but with some slowing in buyer urgency. The numbers point to steady sales activity, slightly slower selling times than the fastest markets and limited fresh supply, putting pressure on choice for buyers.

Sydney sales volume and days on market

Sydney’s sales volume was little changed over the year to January 2026, recording a small rise of 0.5 per cent, while the national sales volume increased by 4.1 per cent over the same month. Sydney’s median home was taking around 32 days to sell over the three months to January 2026, compared with a combined‑capital median of 26 days and a national median of 29 days.

^{Source: Cotality}

While sales in Sydney are roughly flat year‑on‑year, they lag growth in Melbourne (which rose 9.6 per cent over the year to January 2026) and behind the stronger national increase, showing Sydney’s market is steady rather than booming. The longer median time on market relative to the combined capitals suggests buyers are taking a touch more time to decide in Sydney, so vendors may face a bit more negotiation than in the fastest markets.

Sydney new and total listings

Fresh listings flowing to market in Sydney were largely unchanged over the year to January 2026 (a 0.1 per cent fall), but total advertised supply in the city was down more noticeably, with total listings falling by 10.4 per cent year‑on‑year. Nationally, new and total listings were also lower in January 2026, reflecting generally tight stock across many markets.

^{Source: Cotality}

The drop in total listings in Sydney means there is less choice for buyers than a year ago, even though the number of new listings hasn’t moved much. Put simply, homes are being taken off the market faster than they are being replaced, which helps support prices even if sales volumes are only slightly higher. This pattern is consistent with the wider capital‑city picture, where total listings fell sharply through January 2026.

Sydney vendor discount and auction clearance rates

Vendor discounting is the percentage difference between the initial asking price and the final sale price, and auction clearance rates show the share of scheduled auctions that sell under the hammer or immediately after. Together, these measures tell us how much room buyers have to negotiate and how confident buyers are when competing for property.

Sydney vendor discount

^{Source: Cotality}

Over recent months, vendors in Sydney have, on average, been conceding only a few per cent from their initial asking price, with median discounts sitting around the low‑to‑mid single digits in favour of sellers. Narrower discounts mean sellers are holding firmer on price, while wider discounts would indicate a softer market and stronger buyer bargaining power.

Sydney auction clearance rates

^{Source: Domain}

Weekly auction results through late January and early February 2026 show clearance rates easing a little from very strong summer weeks: Sydney recorded about 78 per cent clearance for the week of 25 January 2026, 76 per cent for the week of 1 February 2026 and 68 per cent for the week of 8 February 2026. That pullback suggests competition at auctions softened slightly after a busy summer, though clearance rates remain high enough to indicate meaningful buyer demand when quality stock is offered.

Sydney property investing

Sydney’s rental market remains tight but shows signs of short-term easing as a seasonal lift in listings is being absorbed quickly. Below we lay out the latest rental rates, yields and vacancy trends and explain what is driving conditions in Sydney this month.

Sydney rental market

This section summarises rental rates, yields and recent annual changes in rents for houses and units, using the latest monthly data from Cotality. The table below shows the national and capital city metrics for Feb 2026 so you can compare Sydney with other markets.

^{Source: Cotality}

Sydney’s rents have been rising at a solid pace over the past year, while gross yields sit near the lowest among the capitals, reflecting high home values relative to rents. Part of the reason is limited advertised stock in the sale market and continued competition for lower-priced houses, which keeps pressure on rents even when listings tick up seasonally. Cotality’s commentary also points to slow supply growth and affordability constraints that are keeping rental demand elevated in Sydney relative to available stock.

Sydney vacancy rates

Vacancy rates show how easily renters can find properties and are a useful guide to near-term rental pressure. Nationally, vacancies remain well below long-run averages, so even small monthly falls in vacancies can quickly push asking rents higher. SQM’s latest figures show which cities are tightening and which are looser as the rental market heads into the new year.

^{Source: SQM Research}

What stands out for Sydney is that vacancy tightened through the start of the year, moving from 1.8 per cent in December 2025 to 1.5 per cent in January 2026, with available listings falling from 13,252 to 10,987. That leaves Sydney a touch looser than the national vacancy rate but still historically tight, which helps explain why asking rents are continuing to rise. Cotality’s recent housing market notes on low advertised stock and strong competition at lower price points provide extra context for why vacancies remain constrained despite seasonal listing lifts.  

Sam Tate, Head of Property at SQM Research, said in the latest SQM rental market report

“The decline in the national vacancy rate to 1.2% in January highlights how quickly seasonal increases in rental supply can be absorbed in Australia’s current market. Most capital cities recorded tightening conditions, particularly Brisbane, Perth and Darwin, where vacancy rates are again sitting below 1%. With advertised rents rising in many markets early in the year, it suggests tenant demand remains strong. Unless we see a meaningful increase in new rental supply, upward pressure on rents is likely to persist through the first half of 2026.” 

Sam’s point about seasonal vacancy increases being absorbed shows up clearly in Sydney, where vacancy tightened from 1.8% in December 2025 to 1.5% in January 2026, and available rentals fell from 13,252 to 10,987. Even after that tightening, Sydney is still looser than a year ago, with vacancy at 1.5% versus 1.4% in January 2025. 

Rent momentum is consistent with the “upward pressure” theme, with combined asking rents at $900.52 per week and up 6.6% over the year. A 1.7% rise over the rolling month suggests demand is firm enough that any extra summer listings haven’t translated into tenant-friendly conditions.

Highest growth areas in Sydney

^{Source: Cotality}

Highlights for Sydney’s high growth areas

• Merrylands - Guildford is leading the January 2026 list, ranked #1 with a median value of $1,329,141 and annual growth of 14.9 per cent, driven by strong demand from young families and improved connectivity to Parramatta. Suburbs to watch in Merrylands - Guildford: Greystanes, Merrylands, Guildford 
• St Marys (#2) and Mount Druitt (#4) are both recording double‑digit gains — St Marys has a median of $1,142,938 with 14.2 per cent growth and Mount Druitt $991,838 with 12.5 per cent — reflecting western Sydney’s transport upgrades and affordability pull for families and investors. Suburbs to watch in St Marys and Mount Druitt: St Marys, Rooty Hill 
• Canterbury sits at #3 with a median of $1,324,994 and annual growth of 12.7 per cent, buoyed by Sydenham–Bankstown metro works and a rising pipeline of medium‑density development near stations. Suburbs to watch in Canterbury: Canterbury, Roselands, Kingsgrove 
• Bankstown (#10) and Blacktown (#9) show strong price levels alongside solid growth — Bankstown’s median is $1,485,368 with 10.9 per cent growth and Blacktown $1,201,381 with 11.2 per cent — highlighting that both established hubs are seeing sustained demand as transport and health‑service upgrades progress.   Suburbs to watch in Bankstown and Blacktown: Bankstown, Padstow, Revesby, Panania, Lalor Park, Seven Hills, Blacktown 
• Outer/regional centres are prominent: Penrith (#6) has a median of $1,096,304 and 11.8 per cent growth, while Blue Mountains (#8) sits at $1,034,337 with 11.5 per cent — underlining that regional lifestyle and constrained supply are supporting rapid value rises across western and peri‑urban Sydney.