Canberra property market data, trends, forecasts

Canberra property market news - key takeaways

• Price movements show stagnancy: CoreLogic’s analytics reveal that Canberra experienced a -0.7 per cent annual decline in housing values. This indicates a relative flattening in property prices, even as national trends show growth.
• Cheaper homes are outperforming: The Canberra property market is seeing growth rates converge across different price points, with lower price tiers continuing to lead the rise in housing values.
• Auction clearance rates moderate: Canberra's auction clearance rate was 57 per cent for the week of June 15, 2025. This reflects moderate buyer interest and market activity.
• Rental market remains tight: Canberra's vacancy rate was 1.6 per cent in April 2025, according to SQM. Weekly rents increased by 1.0 per cent over the past month to $693, highlighting strong rental demand.
• Financing conditions improve: The RBA's recent interest rate cuts are expected to ease borrowing conditions. This could potentially boost market activity and affordability in the Canberra property market.

Canberra property price movements

The Canberra property market is showing short-term signs of recovery. Dwelling values have seen some growth recently. However, the market still faces challenges due to high supply levels, especially in the unit sector, which could affect future prices.

Canberra property prices - May 2025

In May 2025, Canberra's property market experienced a +0.4 per cent rise in values over the month, leading to a +0.5 per cent increase for the quarter. Yet, on a yearly basis, values have dropped by -0.7 per cent, with the median property value now at $855,663.

^{Source: Cotality}

This recent growth in Canberra's property values is a positive change after months of little movement. The increase is partly due to the national trend of rising values, helped by recent interest rate cuts. However, the annual decrease shows the market is still bouncing back from past downturns.

House prices in Canberra - May 2025

The Canberra housing market has seen a slight rise, with Canberra house prices going up by +0.5 per cent in May 2025. This monthly increase adds to a +0.8 per cent rise over the quarter, although house prices have fallen by -0.5 per cent over the past year. The median house price in Canberra is now $975,387.

^{Source: Cotality}

The Canberra housing market is stabilising, with recent monthly and quarterly gains. However, the yearly drop in Canberra house prices indicates the market is still adjusting to earlier economic pressures. The Canberra housing market continues to be affected by high supply levels and affordability issues.

Unit prices in Canberra - May 2025

Unit prices in Canberra have dipped slightly, with values decreasing by -0.1 per cent in May 2025. Over the quarter, unit values fell by -0.6 per cent, and the annual change shows a decrease of -1.4 per cent. The median unit price in Canberra is $594,769.

^{Source: Cotality}

The Canberra unit market is facing challenges, with high supply levels contributing to the drop in values. Despite some growth in the broader property market, Canberra unit prices are still under pressure. The abundance of units, along with affordability concerns, continues to impact Canberra unit prices.

Canberra property market forecasts 2025-26

Canberra is expected to see slower growth compared to some other capital cities. These Canberra property market predictions suggest a moderate outlook, with potential for slight improvement as interest rates are anticipated to ease.

Here's what's expected around the country in 2025.

^{Source: Westpac Housing Pulse, NAB Residential Property Survey.}

Canberra home price forecasts 2025

Westpac predicts a 3 per cent rise in national dwelling values in 2025. Canberra is likely to follow a similar trend due to its unique market dynamics. 

NAB's outlook also suggests a 3 per cent increase in the eight-capital-city house-price index, which includes Canberra. 

These forecasts are shaped by expectations of further rate cuts by the RBA, which could boost borrowing power and stimulate buyer interest. However, the availability of new housing supply, especially apartments, might limit price growth, particularly in areas with significant public servant populations.

RBA cash rate forecast 2025

Recent quarterly inflation data came in lower than expected, indicating that price pressures are easing, which could lead to rate cuts. However, banks remain cautious due to global uncertainties like trade tensions and commodity price fluctuations.

• CBA: Anticipates three 25 basis point cuts at the May, August, and November 2024 meetings, reducing the cash rate from 4.10 per cent to 3.35 per cent by November 2025.
• Westpac: Expects two 25 basis point cuts in May and July 2025, with the cash rate reaching 3.35 per cent by the end of 2025.
• NAB: Predicts a 50 bps cut at the May 2024 meeting, followed by 25 bps reductions in July, August, and November 2024, and another 25 bps in February 2025, bringing the cash rate to 2.60 per cent by February 2025.
• ANZ: Foresees three more 25 bps cuts—in May, July, and August 2025—lowering the cash rate to 3.35 per cent by August 2025.

What this means for the Canberra market

Canberra’s market has been fairly flat over the past year, with a median price decrease of -0.7 per cent. With more new housing supply, especially apartments, entering the market, lower rates could boost buyer demand—particularly from public servants who form a large part of the buyer pool. Detached homes in areas like Gungahlin and Tuggeranong might attract more interest if loan costs decrease. 

However, a sharp bounce is not expected just yet. These forecasts were published before the RBA’s rate cut in May, and any significant market movement is likely to occur later this year.

Canberra house prices graphs and charts

Since the Covid boom of 2021, Canberra's house price growth has been modest. Dwelling values are still 6.4 per cent below their peak in May 2022, a stark contrast to the rapid gains during the pandemic price explosion.

The five-year chart shows that after a significant surge during COVID, Canberra’s housing market began a prolonged correction in 2022. Since then, quarterly growth has been nearly flat, with recent data indicating no significant recovery in momentum.

Before this slowdown, Canberra's property growth over the last 10 years was quite dramatic. Prices soared by 55 per cent during the COVID boom, climbing from $720,000 to over $1.1 million by the end of 2021. This was fuelled by record-low interest rates and a demand for larger homes. However, the surge was followed by steep rate hikes, builder collapses, and tighter borrowing conditions, reshaping buyer and seller behaviour. Today, sentiment is cautious, with a focus on long-term value rather than quick gains.

This kind of stop-start cycle is typical for Canberra. The market tends to pause rather than crash, influenced by public-sector hiring, land supply constraints, and tight rental conditions. While prices are still below their peak, there are early signs of stabilisation.

Canberra selling statistics

Canberra's property market in June 2025 is experiencing some interesting changes. Sales volumes are on the rise, and properties are remaining on the market for an extended period. While some metrics are showing improvement, others hint at challenges for sellers.

Canberra sales volume and days on market

Sales volumes in Canberra have jumped by +8.2 per cent from last year, indicating solid demand locally. The median days on market for properties is now 49 days, a slight improvement from 51 days a year ago.

This boost in sales volume is a positive sign for Canberra, especially when you consider the national trend, which saw a +2.3 per cent increase. The decrease in days on market, though small, suggests properties are selling a bit faster, showing steady demand. 

Canberra new and total listings

New listings in Canberra dropped by -9.0 per cent from the previous year, while total listings rose by 3.2 per cent.

The decline in new listings could mean sellers are holding back, perhaps waiting for better market conditions. The rise in total listings indicates that properties are staying on the market longer, giving buyers more choices and potentially leading to more price negotiations.

Canberra vendor discount and auction clearance rates

Vendor discounting and auction clearance rates shed light on buyers' negotiation power and overall market sentiment. A lower vendor discount means sellers are sticking to their prices, while higher auction clearance rates show strong buyer demand.

Canberra vendor discount over time

^{Source: Cotality}

In Canberra, the median vendor discount is -3.5 per cent, slightly higher than the combined capitals' median of -3.2 per cent. This suggests sellers in Canberra are offering a bit more in discounts compared to other capitals, likely due to increased competition and longer days on market.

Canberra auction clearance rates

^{Source: Domain}

The auction clearance rate in Canberra for the week of June 15, 2025, was 57 per cent. This rate has been stable compared to previous weeks, indicating consistent buyer interest. However, it is lower than cities like Melbourne and Sydney, which have clearance rates above 60 per cent, suggesting that while demand exists, it may not be as strong as in larger markets.

Canberra property investing

Canberra's rental market is on a steady climb, with rental rates and yields gradually increasing. This stability offers a more predictable environment for both renters and investors. Let's dive into the specifics of rental rates, yields, and vacancy trends to get a clearer picture of Canberra's current market dynamics.

Canberra rental market

Rental rates in Canberra have been on the rise, reflecting a stable market where growth is consistent but not overwhelming. Gross rental yields in Canberra are quite healthy, showing a good balance between property values and rental income. Here are the detailed metrics:

^{Source: Cotality}

Over the past year, Canberra's rental market has seen a +1.2 per cent increase in rental rates. The rental yield is at 4.1 per cent, which is higher than many other capitals, making it an attractive option for property investors. 

Annual rent changes show a +1.1 per cent increase for houses and a +1.6 per cent rise for units. These figures suggest a stable market with moderate growth, appealing to both renters and investors seeking consistency.

Canberra vacancy rates

Vacancy rates are key to understanding the supply-demand balance in the rental market. They show how easily tenants can find properties and negotiate rents. 

Nationally, vacancy rates have eased slightly, indicating a more balanced market. However, most capitals remain tight, with vacancy rates still below the balanced range of 2 to 3 per cent.

^{Source: SQM Research}

In Canberra, the vacancy rate has dropped to 1.5 per cent from 1.8 per cent a year ago. This decrease suggests a tightening market, although it remains below the balanced range, indicating that demand still exceeds supply. 

Compared to other cities, Canberra's vacancy rate is relatively moderate, offering a slightly more tenant-friendly environment than cities like Hobart and Darwin, which have much lower vacancy rates.

Louis Christopher, Managing Director of SQM Research, said in his latest rental market report

“The rise in national vacancy rates to 1.3% reflects a shift toward a slightly eased rental market, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney, where increased supply is providing tenants with more options. However, tight markets in Hobart, Darwin, and Perth continue to favour landlords, potentially triggering further rental price growth in those regions. It is typical that over the winter period, the rental market goes into somewhat of a lull with rental vacancy rates rising a notch. This winter might prove to be a good time for tenants looking for rental properties, keeping in mind we don’t expect this lull to last any more than a few months.”

Canberra’s vacancy rate has edged down to 1.5 per cent, aligning with Louis’s view that vacancies are “steady” overall but still below balance. Rents fell -2.3 per cent over the month yet remain +4.2 per cent higher year-on-year, illustrating his point that rents can stay elevated even when short-term declines occur.

At 1.5 per cent, the capital is close to balance but not quite there, so tenant conditions have improved only slightly. Without sustained new supply, any rent relief may be short-lived once demand picks up with the spring turnover.

^{Source: Cotality}

Highlights for Canberra’s high growth areas

• Monlonglo takes the top spot with a median value of $777,304, showing a +2 per cent annual change. Its popularity is driven by an +8 per cent population increase and limited housing supply, which supports its steady demand.
• Belconnen comes in at #2 with a median price of $829,607 and a +0.9 per cent growth. The area benefits from strong migration and a $180 million precinct expansion, which has added 310 new residents. Suburbs to keep an eye on include Dunlop.
• Tuggeranong is ranked #3, with a median value of $849,964 and a +0.5 per cent change. Its limited housing supply and lakeside attractions continue to draw in buyers. Monash is a suburb worth watching.
• South Canberra holds the #4 position with a median value of $797,833, despite a -0.2 per cent annual decline. Its heritage charm and ongoing renewal projects make it appealing to prestige buyers.
• Gungahlin, Weston Creek, Woden Valley, and North Canberra rank #5 to #8, experiencing declines ranging from -1.4 to -3.1 per cent, with median values between $840,622 and $978,943. Infrastructure upgrades and mature market dynamics play a role in their current performance.