Darwin property market data, trends, forecasts

Darwin property market news - key takeaways

• Price momentum remains strong: Home values rose +1.5 per cent monthly in January 2026 and are up +19.7 per cent over the year, the strongest 12‑month gain since August 2021, according to our market research.  
• Demand under supply constraints: The Darwin property market is running on extremely low advertised stock — almost -60 per cent below the five‑year average in January 2026 — keeping competition high and supporting price gains.  
• Property selling fast: Median days on market remain very short as buyers compete for a tiny pool of listings, though monthly momentum has eased slightly from its recent peak, reflecting a market that’s still tight but more sensitive after a large run-up.  
• Tight rental conditions: Vacancy tightened to 0.8 per cent in January 2026, while combined asking rents are $661.11 per week, up +9.4 per cent over the year and showing a +1.5 per cent rolling monthly lift, keeping rental pressure firmly in place.  
• Rate rise headwind: The RBA raised the cash rate by +0.25 percentage points to 3.85 per cent in February 2026, which increases borrowing costs and is likely to temper buyer demand if further hikes follow.

Darwin property price movements

The Darwin property market is being driven by very tight listings and strong rental conditions, which have supported rapid price gains over the past year. That said, Cotality notes that momentum has settled slightly from its late‑2025 peak as supply constraints remain the key story for the market.  

Darwin property prices - February 2026

Homes in Darwin recorded strong growth in the latest CoreLogic release, with values rising +1.5 per cent for the month, +5.4 per cent over the quarter and +19.7 per cent over the year, taking the median to $602,870. This monthly lift equates to an approximate $9,043 increase in the median value over the last 30 days.

^{Source: Cotality}

Looking back over recent months, January’s monthly gain of +1.5 per cent followed stronger monthly rises through late 2025, so while growth remains very high on an annual basis, the month‑to‑month pace has eased a little from the peak monthly readings in November and December. Extremely low advertised stock and continued rental strength are the main reasons values have stayed elevated. 

House prices in Darwin

House values rose +1.6 per cent in the month, +6.1 per cent over the quarter and +20.8 per cent over the year, with the median house price now $715,084. That monthly move represents an approximate $11,441 increase in the median house value over the last 30 days.

^{Source: Cotality}

Darwin’s housing market has been the strongest among the capitals on an annual basis, supported by very low listings and solid rent growth that has kept investor interest elevated. While monthly gains have eased slightly from the end of 2025, the annual lift and tight supply mean Darwin house prices remain historically strong. The Darwin housing market and Darwin house prices continue to be shaped more by local supply constraints and rental fundamentals than by national rate moves. 

Unit prices in Darwin

Unit values increased +1.4 per cent for the month, +3.9 per cent over the quarter and +17.5 per cent over the year, with the median unit price at $440,758. That monthly rise is roughly a $6,171 increase in the median unit value over the last 30 days.

^{Source: Cotality}

Unit markets in Darwin have also delivered strong annual gains, though quarterly growth is a little softer than for houses, reflecting some divergence between segments. High rents and relatively attractive gross yields have continued to support investor demand, which, combined with very low advertised supply, helps explain why Darwin unit prices remain up strongly year‑on‑year. The data underline why Darwin unit prices have been among the stronger outcomes across the capitals. 

Darwin property market forecasts 2026

Australia’s big four banks regularly release house price forecasts to guide mortgage-lending decisions, manage risk, and demonstrate their market expertise. Here's a look at what they expect for 2026.

^{Source: Westpac Housing Pulse, NAB Residential Property Survey, CBA Economic Update, ANZ Housing Outlook.} 

Darwin’s forecasts sit on the more mixed end of the capital-city spectrum, with some banks painting a stronger outlook for the territory while others expect only modest gains compared with national predictions. These Darwin house price forecast views reflect differences in how each bank weighs local supply shortages against broader national forces such as inflation and demand. 

Darwin home price forecasts 2026

Darwin’s strong recent run has been driven by very low listings and solid rental conditions, which helps explain why some forecasters are more positive for the city than for larger capitals. Banks that expect stronger growth have pointed to tight supply and high yields supporting investor demand, while more cautious forecasters emphasise Darwin’s smaller, more volatile market and the risk that affordability and rate moves could temper activity. 

RBA cash rate forecast 2026

On 3 February 2026, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.85 per cent, noting that inflationary pressures had resurged (CPI was around +3.8 per cent) and demand was running strong. Most analysts had anticipated a hike given the recent uptick in inflation, although some saw it as a cautious first step pending further data. Below are the major banks’ updated forecasts (based on their latest published views heading into 2026): 

• CBA: Forecasts no further hikes for 2026, holding at 3.85 per cent.
• Westpac: Forecasts no further hikes for 2026, holding at 3.85 per cent.
• NAB: Forecasts one more hike in May, taking the cash rate to 4.10 per cent.
• ANZ: Forecasts no further hikes for 2026, holding at 3.85 per cent.

What this means for the Darwin market

Darwin’s housing market is relatively small and driven by local factors (like mining projects and population swings). Interest rate changes tend to have a muted effect in Darwin. That said, higher rates might boost investor appeal slightly since Darwin offers strong rental yields. After rate hikes in previous cycles, Darwin prices have often remained fairly flat. We’d expect a similar pattern: growth should continue, but only modestly, as long as the local economy holds up. Any gains will largely depend on factors like oil/gas projects rather than RBA moves.

Darwin house prices graphs and charts

Darwin's house price growth over the last 5 years has moved from a flat period into a strong upswing recently, with the latest monthly, quarterly and 12-month changes showing a +1.5 per cent rise in January, +5.4 per cent over the quarter and +19.7 per cent over the year. As per Cotality’s analysis, these gains have pushed Darwin dwelling values to a record high. 

The five-year chart shows Darwin lagged the big southern booms in 2021–22, then strengthened from 2024 as quarterly growth turned consistently positive and annual growth accelerated sharply. Cotality’s dataset demonstrates this is a late-cycle surge driven by tightening listings and renewed demand rather than a one-month spike. 

Darwin property prices growth over the last 10 years reflects a history of boom–bust swings driven by project cycles, migration and interest rates, and the recent rebound has taken values beyond prior peaks after a long period of underperformance. OpenAgent’s market history notes Darwin hit a new record by mid‑2025 (median house around $653,000 in November 2025) as low stock, stronger rents and returning investor interest pushed prices up, leaving homeowners feeling relieved and renters feeling squeezed. 

Homeowner sentiment today is noticeably more positive than the mid‑2020s pause: sellers are confident because listings remain low and demand is outstripping supply, while buyers are more cautious because borrowing costs and lending buffers still constrain budgets. The long-run lesson for Darwin remains that interest-rate moves, supply timing and population shifts quickly change the market, so owners and buyers should factor in possible volatility even while prices are rising.

Darwin selling statistics

Darwin’s selling indicators show a market with noticeably higher turnover but tighter advertised stock, suggesting more activity is coming through a smaller pool of listings. The numbers point to stronger buying demand in recent months, while sellers have been less willing to hold large volumes of property on the market.

Darwin sales volume and days on market

Darwin recorded a sharp rise in sales volumes, with estimated sales up 50.3 per cent on a 12‑month basis in the most recent national release, while the national sales volume rose by 4.1 per cent over the same period. At the same time, Darwin’s median selling time over the three months to January 2026 was 32 days, which is faster than earlier in 2025 and close to the combined‑capital selling speed.  

^{Source: Cotality}

That large jump in Darwin sales alongside a relatively short median days on market suggests stronger buyer activity rather than just one‑off statistical noise. Nationally, markets are a bit quieter than peak mid‑2024 levels, but Darwin’s gain stands out and likely reflects a mix of local demand and a tighter number of listings filtering through to sales.

Darwin new and total listings

Fresh listing flows into Darwin have declined, with new listings down 9.6 per cent year‑on‑year and total advertised listings falling by 38.2 per cent over the same period in the January data. That drop in stock is much larger than the falls seen in most other capitals, which helps explain why Darwin can see higher sales with fewer homes for sale.

^{Source: Cotality}

Put plainly, fewer homes coming onto the market means buyers compete over a smaller pool of properties, which can push more transactions through quickly and support prices. For sellers, this is broadly positive timing, while buyers may find choice limited and need to move quicker or make stronger offers.

Darwin vendor discount

Vendor discount refers to the percentage difference between the initial asking price and the actual sale price, offering insight into the bargaining power buyers enjoy. It’s a key indicator because tighter discounts imply that sellers are standing firm on price, whereas wider discounts suggest a softer market and potentially more aggressive bargaining.

^{Source: Cotality}

Darwin’s median vendor discount has tightened relative to mid‑2024 levels and has been around -3.3 per cent in recent quarterly readings, broadly in line with or a little stronger than the national pattern, where discounts have been roughly -3.4 per cent in recent quarters. That means sellers in Darwin are typically conceding less off their initial asking price than they did during the softer periods last year.  

Darwin’s combination of much lower advertised stock and smaller vendor discounts means that, in simple terms, there’s active buyer demand and less room for negotiation than there was a year ago, so buyers should expect to move sooner or pay closer to the listed price to secure a property.

Darwin property investing

Darwin’s rental market is tight and showing continued upward pressure on rents, driven by low available stock and steady tenant demand. Below, we set out the detailed rental rate and yield figures and the vacancy data that explain what renters and owners are seeing on the ground.

Darwin rental market

This section looks at rental rates, yields and recent annual changes so you can see how Darwin compares to other capitals. The table below contains the headline rental rates, rental yields and the annual change in rents for houses and units across the capitals and nationally for Feb 2026 data releases.

^{Source: Cotality}

Darwin stands out for its relatively high gross rental yield compared with other capitals, reflecting rental returns that remain strong relative to local home values. Cotality’s monthly data shows Darwin’s rental rate rose strongly in the year to January 2026, and its capital-city yield remained well above other capitals, even though yields have been drifting lower as values rise faster than rents. Cotality’s HVI commentary notes that while Darwin offers some of the highest yields nationally, those yields have compressed over the year as house prices climbed faster than rents.

Darwin vacancy rates

Vacancy rates show how quickly rental stock is being absorbed and are a key indicator of whether tenants or landlords have the stronger negotiating position. Nationally, vacancies remain historically low, and the outlook is for continued tightness unless new rental supply increases meaningfully, which keeps upward pressure on asking rents across many cities.

^{Source: SQM Research}

What stands out for Darwin is how tight stock has become again after the holiday period. SQM’s vacancy data shows Darwin’s vacancy rate fell from 1.0 per cent in December 2025 to 0.8 per cent in January 2026, with the number of advertised vacancies dropping from 255 to 195, which is tighter than this time last year and supports continued rent growth in the city. That tightness is consistent with Cotality’s view that Darwin recorded among the strongest annual rental gains recently, backing up the tight vacancy picture seen in the SQM data.

Sam Tate, Head of Property at SQM Research said in the latest SQM rental market report

“The decline in the national vacancy rate to 1.2% in January highlights how quickly seasonal increases in rental supply can be absorbed in Australia’s current market. Most capital cities recorded tightening conditions, particularly Brisbane, Perth and Darwin, where vacancy rates are again sitting below 1%. With advertised rents rising in many markets early in the year, it suggests tenant demand remains strong. Unless we see a meaningful increase in new rental supply, upward pressure on rents is likely to persist through the first half of 2026.” 

Darwin lines up with Sam’s view that tightening is returning, with vacancy dropping from 1.0% in December 2025 to 0.8% in January 2026, and vacancies falling from 255 to 195. It remains tighter than January 2025 as well (0.8% versus 1.1%), which supports the idea that this is more than just a post-holiday wobble.

Combined asking rents are $661.11 per week and up 9.4% over the year, consistent with rent pressure persisting in a sub-1% market. A 1.5% rolling monthly increase suggests demand is still strong enough that tenants are unlikely to see meaningful relief without a lift in new supply.

Highest growth areas in Darwin

• Palmerston is ranked #1 in January 2026 with a median value of $634,104 and an annual change of 27.5 per cent; it has held the top spot across the most recent monthly releases (November–January), underlining sustained demand in family‑focused fringe suburbs.  
• Darwin Suburbs (ranked #2) recorded a median value of $602,689 and annual growth of 18.7 per cent in January 2026, supported by major retail and health hubs and nearby defence/industrial projects that bolster local employment.  
• Darwin City is ranked #3 with a median value of $515,442 and annual growth of 14.4 per cent in January 2026, where apartment‑heavy stock and inner‑city amenity upgrades (including the Darwin Civic Centre redevelopment and Waterfront projects) are keeping inner‑urban demand firm.  
• The gap between Palmerston (27.5 per cent) and Darwin Suburbs (18.7 per cent) highlights a clear divergence in momentum this month, with Palmerston showing outsized growth while both areas remain in a similar market tier by median value (around $600k).  
• Palmerston’s growth trajectory is notable — annual change accelerated from 24.2 per cent in November to 26.3 per cent in December and to 27.5 per cent in January — a pattern consistent with very low listings and tight rental markets that are intensifying competition for established homes.