Darwin property market data, trends, forecasts

Darwin property market news - key takeaways

• Darwin property market at record high: Darwin dwelling values rose +16.3 per cent over the year to July 2026, the strongest annual gain of any Australian capital city, with the median reaching $642,175.
• Stock growing but clearing fast: New and total listings both lifted around +15 per cent year on year, yet properties are selling in 33 days on average, down from 43 days a year ago.
• Vendors holding firm on price: Darwin's median vendor discount held steady at -3.2 per cent, unchanged from a year ago, at a time when discounts are widening across most other capitals.
• Tightest rental market in the country: Darwin's vacancy rate fell to just 0.3 per cent with annual rent growth of +10.4 per cent, the highest of any capital city and nearly double the national figure.
• Rate cuts still a year away: All four major banks expect the RBA's next move to be a cut, but the earliest forecast is May 2027, leaving the cash rate at 4.35 per cent in the near term.

Darwin property price movements

The Darwin property market posted gains across all property types in July 2026, continuing a strong run that has set it apart from most other Australian capitals. While many cities are recording quarterly declines, Darwin is moving in the opposite direction.

Darwin property prices - July 2026

Darwin values rose +0.8 per cent over the month, adding to a quarterly gain of +2.4 per cent and a standout annual increase of +16.3 per cent. The annual figure is the strongest of any capital city, reflecting localised demand conditions rather than any broad national tailwind.

^{Source: Cotality}

The median home value in Darwin reached $642,175 in July 2026, up around $5,089 from the prior month. Darwin values are at a record high.

House prices in Darwin

Darwin house prices rose +0.7 per cent over the month, with quarterly growth of +2.2 per cent and an annual gain of +14.8 per cent. The Darwin housing market has sustained positive momentum across all three timeframes.

^{Source: Cotality}

The median house value reached $755,082 in July 2026, a gain of around $5,244 over the month. Houses have posted strong annual growth, though units have outpaced them over every measured period.

Unit prices in Darwin

Darwin unit prices posted the sharpest monthly rise of any segment, climbing +1.0 per cent to a median of $475,907 in July 2026. Darwin unit prices are also ahead on a quarterly basis at +2.7 per cent and annually at +19.8 per cent.

^{Source: Cotality}

The monthly gain translated to a dollar increase of around $4,712 in the median unit value. The annual growth rate of +19.8 per cent means units have risen at a faster pace than houses over the past year, suggesting demand at the more affordable end of the Darwin market has been particularly firm.

Darwin property market forecasts 2026

Australia's Big Four banks publish dwelling price forecasts as part of their annual economic research, and views on Darwin in 2026 vary considerably across the group. Westpac does not publish a separate dwelling price forecast for Darwin, so the comparison here draws on the three banks that do.

• CBA predicts Darwin property prices to rise +8.0 per cent over 2026.
• Westpac does not publish a separate dwelling price forecast for Darwin.
• NAB's published forecast is at the Northern Territory state level; it predicts dwelling prices to fall -1.7 per cent over the next 12 months across the Northern Territory.
• ANZ predicts Darwin property prices to rise +9.2 per cent over 2026.

The Darwin house price forecast spread is wide. ANZ sits at the optimistic end of Darwin property market predictions at +9.2 per cent, while NAB's Northern Territory-level figure of -1.7 per cent sits at the other end, though that figure covers the broader territory rather than Darwin specifically. CBA's +8.0 per cent sits closer to ANZ than to NAB, clustering near the upper end of the city-level range rather than the middle.

RBA cash rate forecast 2026

The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35 per cent at its most recent meeting, consistent with softer-than-anticipated June inflation data pointing to a pause in rate pressure. All four major banks expect the next move to be a cut, though they differ on timing, with forecasts ranging from May 2027 through to August 2027 for the first reduction.

• ANZ expects the next cash-rate move to be a 25 basis point cut, forecasting cuts in September and December 2027 to bring the cash rate to 3.85 per cent.
• CBA expects the next cash-rate move to be a 25 basis point cut, forecasting another cut in September 2027 to bring the cash rate to 3.85 per cent.
• NAB expects the next cash-rate move to be a 25 basis point cut, forecasting two more cuts in September and December 2027 to bring the cash rate to 3.60 per cent.
• Westpac expects the next cash-rate move to be a 25 basis point cut, forecasting another cut in December 2027 to bring the cash rate to 3.85 per cent.

What this means for the Darwin market

At 4.35 per cent, the cash rate keeps borrowing costs elevated for Darwin buyers, where a median house price of $755,082 already sits well above the national average for a smaller capital. That said, Darwin's gross rental yield of 6.2 per cent is the highest of any capital city, which narrows the cost-of-debt gap for investors relative to markets like Sydney or Melbourne.

The rate environment matters differently across segments. For first-home buyers stretching to enter the market, current borrowing costs remain a real constraint on purchasing power. Owner-occupier upgraders and investors, by contrast, may weigh the yield advantage and Darwin's strong annual price growth of +16.3 per cent against the prospect of rate cuts arriving in 2027 and reducing debt-servicing costs over the medium term.

CBA's and NAB's forecasts were published in the first half of 2026, before the RBA's most recent hold decision, so both banks' views may be revised as updated guidance comes through in coming months.

Helpful resource: Our simple guide to tracking market trends and data will walk you through everything you need to know to be able to read the market and make a smarter selling decision.

Darwin house prices graphs and charts

Darwin's house price growth over the last 5 years has continued to build momentum, with dwelling values rising +0.8 per cent in July, +2.4 per cent over the quarter, and +16.3 per cent over the year to a median of $642,175, according to Cotality's latest figures.

Darwin's five-year recovery has been driven by a combination of factors specific to the Northern Territory: persistently low housing supply, strong demand from defence and resource sector workers, and an entry price point well below the southern capitals that has kept buyer activity alive even as borrowing costs rose. While most capital cities pulled back over the quarter as elevated mortgage rates weighed on demand, Darwin continued to climb, reflecting local conditions that have remained largely separate from the national trend.

Darwin selling statistics

Darwin's selling-side indicators point to genuine momentum. Sales are rising, stock is growing, and properties are moving quickly, painting a picture of an active market with demand running well ahead of most other capitals.

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Darwin sales volume and days on market

Sales volumes in Darwin climbed +12.2 per cent year on year, a sharp contrast to the combined capitals, which recorded -3.5 per cent over the same period, and the national figure of -0.8 per cent. Homes are also selling faster: the median days on market fell to 33 days from 43 days a year ago, matching the combined capitals average and sitting two days below the national figure of 35 days.

^{Source: Cotality}

Darwin's +12.2 per cent lift in transactions, set against a national market that has softened, points to demand that is locally driven rather than carried by any broad tailwind. The drop from 43 to 33 days on market tells a similar story: buyers in Darwin are making decisions quickly, which gives sellers a meaningful timing advantage over vendors in larger cities where stock is accumulating.

Darwin new and total listings

New listings rose +15.6 per cent year on year, while total listings grew +14.7 per cent over the same period. Both figures are moving in the same direction and at a similar pace, which is a different picture from the national one where total listings are building faster than new supply.

^{Source: Cotality}

When new and total listings track each other closely, it suggests properties are clearing from the market at roughly the pace they arrive, keeping overall stock levels from building into a buyer's overhang. For sellers, the growing pool of fresh listings means some additional competition; for buyers, the wider choice is still modest by the standards of most other capitals.

Darwin vendor discount

Vendor discount measures the percentage gap between a property's first listed price and the price at which it eventually sells. A smaller gap means sellers are achieving prices closer to their initial ask; a wider gap means final sale prices are sitting further below that opening figure. Weekly auction clearance rates are not included for Darwin because auction volumes in the city are too low to produce statistically meaningful results.

^{Source: Cotality}

Darwin's median vendor discount held at -3.2 per cent, unchanged from a year ago. That stability is notable: nationally, discounts have been widening as properties sit longer and buyers gain more negotiating room, but Darwin sellers are holding their position relative to 12 months prior.

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Darwin property investing

Darwin's rental market stands out in the national picture, recording the strongest rent growth of any capital city over the year to July 2026. For investors, the combination of high rental growth and a yield well above the national average makes Darwin one of the more compelling income-producing markets in the country right now.

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Darwin rental market

The table below covers annual rent growth, gross rental yield, and the split between houses and units across all capital cities and key national benchmarks. Darwin's figures are among the most striking in the comparison.

^{Source: Cotality}

Darwin recorded annual rent growth of +10.4 per cent, the highest of any capital city and nearly double the national figure. The gross yield of 6.2 per cent is also the strongest among the capitals, sitting well above the combined capitals average of 3.6 per cent. That gap reflects Darwin's relatively lower property values compared with its achievable rents, a ratio that makes the market particularly attractive on a pure income basis. Houses led the growth at +11.1 per cent annually, though units were not far behind at +9.4 per cent.

Darwin vacancy rates

Vacancy rates measure the share of rental properties sitting empty at any given time. A lower rate means fewer options for renters and more pricing power for landlords. SQM data shows that Darwin's vacancy rate fell from 0.5 per cent a year ago to 0.3 per cent in July 2026, a meaningful tightening for a small market.

^{Source: SQM Research}

Darwin's vacancy rate of 0.3 per cent is the lowest of any capital city tracked, and a meaningful drop from 0.5 per cent a year ago. In absolute terms, just 64 rental properties were vacant across the entire city, down from 115 a year earlier. That is an exceptionally thin pool of available stock for a city of Darwin's size, and it explains directly why rents are climbing faster here than anywhere else in the country.

Louis Christopher, Managing Director at SQM Research said in the latest rental market report:

"While the national vacancy rate has edged up to 1.3%, Australia's rental market remains exceptionally tight by historical standards. Most capital cities continue to record vacancy rates below one per cent or only marginally above, highlighting that rental supply remains insufficient to meet demand."

Darwin sits well below even those already-tight benchmarks that Mr Christopher describes. With a vacancy rate less than a quarter of the national figure and available stock at just 64 properties, the rental supply gap in Darwin is more pronounced than in any other capital. For investors, that level of constraint points to continued upward pressure on rental income, provided new supply does not enter the market at pace.

Highest growth areas in Darwin

Darwin has only three SA3 regions, so the table below captures all of them. Each SA3 is an ABS-defined Statistical Area Level 3, a classification that typically groups several adjacent suburbs into a single geographic unit for data reporting purposes.

• Darwin City: Ranked #1 with annual growth of +17.1 per cent and a median value of $560,453, Darwin City is the strongest-performing region in Greater Darwin. Its relatively lower median compared with the outer regions points to a concentration of unit and apartment stock, where demand from workers, students and Defence-affiliated residents has been running ahead of supply. Suburbs such as Darwin City itself have recorded some of the sharpest gains in the market.
• Darwin Suburbs: Ranked #2 with annual growth of +15.9 per cent and a median value of $651,775, this region covers the established residential belt surrounding the city centre. The combination of freestanding homes, relative affordability against east-coast capitals, and steady population demand from the Territory's resources and public-sector workforce has supported consistent price gains over the past year.
• Palmerston: Ranked #3 with annual growth of +15.5 per cent and a median value of $652,106, Palmerston is Darwin's main satellite city and has long attracted families seeking newer housing at more accessible price points. Suburbs such as Moulden and Zuccoli represent the newer residential fringe of the region, where land release and infrastructure investment have underpinned buyer interest.
• A market moving in one direction: All three Darwin SA3 regions posted annual gains above +15 per cent in July 2026, a breadth of growth that is unusual even in a strong cycle. No single pocket of the market is carrying the result, gains are spread across the inner city, the established suburbs, and the outer satellite corridor.
• Scale and context: Darwin's total market is small relative to the eastern capitals, which means demand shifts from a relatively modest number of buyers or renters can move the data more sharply than in a larger market. The gains recorded across all three regions over the past year reflect genuine demand conditions, tight vacancy, strong rental returns, and prices that remain a fraction of Sydney or Melbourne, rather than speculative momentum alone.

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