Darwin property market data, trends, forecasts

Darwin property market news - key takeaways

• Price growth leads the nation: According to CoreLogic's latest figures, Darwin recorded the highest capital gain among Australian cities in May 2025, with dwelling values rising by +1.6 per cent. This positions the Darwin property market as a standout performer in the short-term.
• Supply remains constrained: CoreLogic data shows that Darwin continues to face limited supply, which is pushing property prices up. Listings are well below the five-year average, leading to a competitive market.
• Quick property sales: Darwin properties are spending less time on the market compared with the previous year. This trend highlights strong buyer demand and limited supply, urging buyers to act more urgently.
• Rental market tightens further: SQM Research reports that Darwin's rental market is extremely tight, with the vacancy rate dropping to 0.5 per cent. Rents have surged by +2.7 per cent monthly and +13.1 per cent annually, showing intense competition for rental properties.
• Interest rate cuts support market activity: The May RBA decision to cut the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.85 per cent is expected to further stimulate the Darwin property market. This move is likely to boost borrowing capacity and affordability, potentially driving increased $ buyer activity.

Darwin property price movements

The Darwin property market is on a sudden and sharp rise, with property values climbing steadily in recent months. This growth is fuelled by strong rental yields and increasing demand, creating a healthy market environment for sellers.

Darwin property prices - May 2025

In Darwin, property values have seen a notable increase, with a monthly rise of +1.6 per cent and quarterly growth of +4.3 per cent. Over the past year, property values have grown by +3.9 per cent, bringing the median value to $525,770.

^{Source: Cotality}

The Darwin property market is leading among capital cities in growth over the last quarter, thanks to strong rental yields and its relatively affordable market compared to other capitals. This consistent growth points to a positive trend, with Darwin's property values showing resilience and potential for further appreciation.

House prices in Darwin - May 2025

House prices in the Darwin housing market have increased by +1.9 per cent over the past month and +4.9 per cent over the quarter. Annually, house prices have risen by +4.8 per cent, with the median house price now at $612,640.

^{Source: Cotality}

The Darwin housing market continues to perform well, with house prices benefiting from growing demand. The sharp rise in Darwin house prices highlights the market's strength and appeal to both investors and homebuyers.

Unit prices in Darwin - May 2025

Unit prices in Darwin have gone up by +1.0 per cent over the past month and +3.2 per cent over the quarter. Over the last year, unit prices have increased by +2.0 per cent, with the median unit price now at $378,298.

^{Source: Cotality}

Darwin unit prices have shown steady growth, backed by strong rental yields and rising interest from investors. The Darwin unit prices continue to be an attractive option for those seeking affordable property investments with good returns.

Darwin property market forecasts 2025

Darwin's property market predictions suggest a steady growth, albeit more modest compared to other capital cities. The outlook remains positive, with interest rate changes playing a crucial role in shaping market dynamics.

Here's what's elsewhere around the country in 2025.

^{Source: Westpac Housing Pulse, NAB Residential Property Survey.}

Darwin home price forecasts 2025

On the national level, Westpac and NAB are expecting relatively steady and moderate price growth of around +3.0 per cent in 2025, indicating a fairly widespread balance between demand and supply. 

These forecasts are influenced by expected interest rate cuts, which could make borrowing more affordable and boost buyer interest. However, Darwin's market tends to respond more slowly to interest rate changes, so the full impact may take time to appear.

SQM Research sees a stronger outcome for Darwin specifically, suggesting that the NT capital could see gains of between +6 and +10 per cent over the course of 2025.

RBA cash rate forecast 2025

On 20 May 2025, the RBA reduced the cash rate by -0.25 percentage points to 3.85 per cent. This decision came as inflation returned to the 2–3 per cent target range, amid global uncertainties like ongoing trade tensions. 

Analysts had anticipated this easing due to slowing price pressures and recent inflation data. The banks’ forecasts below were based on data published before the decision:

• CBA: Predicts the first cut in February 2025, with four 0.25-per-cent cuts throughout the year, bringing the cash rate to 3.10 per cent by December 2025.
• Westpac: Expects the first cut in May 2025, with four 0.25-per-cent reductions in 2025, taking the cash rate to 3.10 per cent by year-end.
• NAB: Forecasts the first cut in May 2025, with five total cuts in 2025, reducing the cash rate to 2.85 per cent by December 2025.
• ANZ: Anticipates the first cut in May 2025, with two 0.25-per-cent cuts in 2025, lowering the cash rate to 3.60 per cent by August 2025.

What this means for the Darwin market

Darwin’s market typically reacts more slowly to interest rate changes, but lower rates could still provide some support.

If rates drop as forecasted, repayments on a median-priced home might decrease by around $200 a month, easing pressure on households.

Darwin’s rental yields are among the highest in the country, potentially attracting investors seeking better returns as financing becomes cheaper. However, Darwin is a smaller, more volatile market, and the impact of the RBA cut may take longer to reflect in sales and price data.

Darwin house prices graphs and charts

Darwin's house price growth over the last 5 years is showing signs of recovery. CoreLogic reports a +1.6 per cent rise in May 2025, a +4.3 per cent increase over the quarter, and a +3.9 per cent boost over the past year. However, dwelling values are still 1.7 per cent below their peak in May 2014.

The five-year chart highlights the volatility in Darwin's housing market, with recent months showing renewed momentum. CoreLogic’s analysis indicates that growth is mainly in the lower and middle market segments, while the top end has shown some weakness.

Over the past decade, Darwin property prices growth has been marked by significant fluctuations. The market faced a downturn after 2014, followed by a gradual recovery. 

In recent years, demand has surged, driven by the return of FIFO workers, defence contractors, and a tight rental market with vacancies around 1 per cent. Homeowners are cautiously optimistic about potential gains due to chronic housing shortages but remain wary of interest rate changes that could affect demand.

Darwin selling statistics

The Darwin property market in May 2025 is buzzing with activity. Sales are up significantly compared to last year, and properties are selling faster than in many other capitals. This suggests strong demand, possibly driven by local economic factors or demographic changes.

Darwin sales volume and days on market

In May 2025, Darwin saw a remarkable +37.9 per cent increase in sales volume compared to the same time last year. The median days on market for properties in Darwin dropped to 41 days, down from 52 days a year ago.

This rise in sales volume is impressive compared to other capitals, where sales have been slower. The decrease in days on market shows properties are selling more quickly, likely due to increased buyer interest or competitive pricing by sellers. Nationally, the median days on market rose to 34 days..

Darwin new and total listings

Darwin has seen a significant drop in both new and total listings. New listings are down by -22.3 per cent, and total listings have fallen by -35.4 per cent compared to last year.

The sharp decline in listings indicates a tightening market with fewer properties available, likely increasing competition among buyers. This scarcity might be speeding up sales and boosting demand, as buyers have fewer choices, prompting quicker decisions.

Darwin vendor discount

Vendor discount measures the percentage difference between the initial asking price and the actual sale price, offering insight into buyers' bargaining power. Tighter discounts mean sellers are holding firm on price, while wider discounts suggest a softer market.

Darwin vendor discount over time

^{Source: Cotality}

In Darwin, the median vendor discount was -3.3 per cent over the last three months to May 2025. This is slightly tighter than the national median of -3.4 per cent, showing that sellers in Darwin are conceding less on price compared to other regions. 

This likely reflects strong confidence in the market's ability to support current pricing levels, thanks to increased sales activity and reduced days on market.

Darwin property investing

Darwin's rental market is undergoing notable shifts, presenting both opportunities and hurdles for investors and renters. 

The city is witnessing strong rental growth, spurred by high demand and limited supply, which is impacting rental yields and vacancy rates. Let's dive into the statistics on rental rates, yields, and vacancy trends to understand what's shaping the conditions in Darwin.

Darwin rental market

Rental rates in Darwin have seen significant annual growth, especially in the unit sector, due to the city's strong demand and limited supply. 

Gross rental yields in Darwin rank among the highest in Australia, offering attractive returns for investors. These trends provide the backdrop for the detailed metrics below.

^{Source: Cotality}

Despite the appealing rental yields, Darwin's rental market faces pressure from the limited availability of rental properties. The annual rent change for houses is +3.1 per cent, while units have experienced a notable increase of +7.8 per cent. 

This highlights the strong demand for rental properties, further supported by a high rental yield of 6.6 per cent. The city's rental growth is driven by factors like a steady influx of residents and a lack of new housing supply.

Darwin vacancy rates

Vacancy rates are crucial indicators of the balance between supply and demand, showing how easily tenants can find properties and negotiate rents. Nationally, a rise in vacancies suggests a slight easing of rental pressure, but most capitals remain historically tight. 

The seasonal winter lull has caused short-term increases in vacancies, though this is expected to reverse as demand rebounds.

^{Source: SQM Research}

Darwin's current vacancy rate is a low 0.5 per cent, down from 0.9 per cent a year ago. This low rate underscores the tight rental market, which continues to favour landlords. 

Compared to other cities, Darwin's vacancy rate is among the lowest, indicating a persistent shortage of rental properties. This tight market condition is likely to keep rents rising unless there is a significant increase in housing supply.

Louis Christopher, Managing Director of SQM Research, said in his latest rental market report:

“The rise in national vacancy rates to 1.3% reflects a shift toward a slightly eased rental market, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney, where increased supply is providing tenants with more options. However, tight markets in Hobart, Darwin, and Perth continue to favour landlords, potentially triggering further rental price growth in those regions. It is typical that over the winter period, the rental market goes into somewhat of a lull with rental vacancy rates rising a notch. This winter might prove to be a good time for tenants looking for rental properties, keeping in mind we don’t expect this lull to last any more than a few months.”

Darwin’s vacancy rate has dropped to 0.5 per cent, illustrating Louis’s point that shortages can worsen without new stock. Rents increased by +2.7 per cent in the month and +13.1 per cent year-on-year, marking the strongest growth among the capitals—exactly the elevated rent trajectory he predicts under tight supply. 

With vacancies at just half a per cent, Darwin’s market remains strongly in favour of landlords. Unless dwelling completions pick up, rapid rent rises are likely to continue.

Highest growth areas in Darwin

Highlights for Darwin’s high growth areas

• Palmerston is leading the pack as of May 2025, with a median value of $530,165. Its annual growth has climbed to +8.7 per cent, up from +7.2 per cent in May and +4.4 per cent in March. This surge is fuelled by strong infrastructure and new land releases.
• Darwin Suburbs takes the #2 position, boasting a median value of $526,257 and an annual growth of +5.6 per cent. This is a steady rise from +4.9 per cent in May, driven by increased public-sector employment and major projects boosting local demand.
• Darwin City is at #3, with a median value of $475,963. Although it shows an annual change of -1.3 per cent, this is an improvement from -3.5 per cent in May. New CBD gateways and waterfront upgrades are helping to stabilise the market.
• Historical trends show Palmerston accelerating in growth, while Darwin Suburbs continues to rise steadily. In contrast, Darwin City is slowly overcoming its negative growth, indicating different recovery paths.
• These areas are bolstered by strong infrastructure investment, expanding defence and healthcare employment, and tight rental markets. This combination is attracting both first-home buyers and investors across Darwin’s SA3 regions.