Darwin property market data, trends, forecasts

Darwin property market news - key takeaways

• Price growth accelerates: Darwin’s housing market is on the rise, with values climbing +1.7 per cent in September. This marks a +13.4 per cent increase so far this year. The growth is largely due to a significant gap between supply and demand. Listings are 43 per cent below average, while sales activity is nearly double the five-year average, according to Cotality’s latest figures.
• Supply-demand imbalance: The Darwin property market is grappling with a notable shortage of homes. By the end of September, the number of homes for sale was about 53 per cent below average. This limited supply is pushing prices up and intensifying competition among buyers.
• Quick property sales: Properties in Darwin are selling fast, driven by high demand and limited availability. The market is tight, meaning quality listings can still trigger strong competition, although overall price growth is expected to remain steady. Cotality highlights “clearance rates… around the 70% mark since mid-August.” That strength mirrors Darwin’s tight stock and helps explain quick selling conditions.
• Rising rental market: Darwin has seen the strongest increase in rents, with house and unit rental values rising by +6.8 per cent and +8.9 per cent respectively over the past year. This is backed by a low vacancy rate, indicating a tight rental market. A tightening trend saw the vacancy rate… 0.7%… Despite the small increase, Darwin remains one of the tightest rental markets in the country.
• Stable interest rates: The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate at 3.60 per cent in late September 2025. This decision supports stable repayments and attractive yields for investors, reinforcing earlier gains in the Darwin property market. NAB anticipates a +3.7 per cent rise in Darwin property prices for 2026, while ANZ forecasts a smaller increase of +2.4 per cent. These predictions are shaped by Darwin's unique market dynamics, such as project pipelines and investor yields, which often influence local demand more than broader economic factors like cash rates.

Darwin property price movements

The Darwin property market is on the rise, with dwelling values seeing notable increases recently. While the market is performing well, it remains influenced by local economic factors and specific project demands, which can cause growth rates to fluctuate. Cotality reports that “Darwin… values [were] 5.9% higher over the past three months.” That momentum underscores how limited stock is fuelling competition locally.

Darwin property prices - September 2025

In September 2025, Darwin's property market experienced a significant boost. The median property value climbed to $558,595, marking a monthly increase of +1.7 per cent and a quarterly rise of +5.9 per cent. Over the past year, property values have jumped by +12.9 per cent.

^{Source: Cotality}

The Darwin property market has been driven by a stark imbalance between supply and demand. With listings well below average and sales activity high, this dynamic has fuelled strong growth in property values, making Darwin a standout among Australian capitals.

House prices in Darwin

Darwin's housing market has been thriving, with house values rising by +2.0 per cent in September 2025. Over the quarter, house prices increased by +7.0 per cent, and annual growth reached +14.1 per cent, bringing the median house price to $667,313.

^{Source: Cotality}

The Darwin housing market attracts strong investor interest due to appealing yields and relatively low prices. The Darwin house prices are bolstered by limited supply and high demand, contributing to the ongoing upward trend in values.

Unit prices in Darwin

Unit prices in Darwin have also grown, though at a slower pace compared to houses. The median unit value rose by +0.9 per cent in September 2025, with a quarterly increase of +3.6 per cent and an annual rise of +10.4 per cent, bringing the median unit price to $402,720.

^{Source: Cotality}

Darwin unit prices remain appealing to investors due to high rental yields and lower entry costs compared to houses. The unit market's growth is supported by the same supply-demand dynamics affecting the broader Darwin property market, although the pace of growth is slightly more measured.

Darwin property market forecasts 2026

Australia’s big four banks regularly release house price forecasts to guide mortgage-lending decisions, manage risk, and demonstrate their market expertise. Here's what they expect for 2026.

<sup>Source: Westpac Housing Pulse, NAB Residential Property Survey, CBA Economic Update, ANZ Housing Outlook. No prediction data for Canberra or Darwin.
* ANZ estimate for Capital Cities, not national</sup>

Darwin is projected to experience steady growth in property prices, with some banks suggesting it might even surpass other major cities. These Darwin property market predictions highlight strong demand fuelled by limited supply and investor interest, which could lead to moderate price increases.

Darwin home price forecasts 2026

NAB anticipates a +3.7 per cent rise in Darwin property prices for 2026, while ANZ forecasts a smaller increase of +2.4 per cent. These predictions are shaped by Darwin's unique market dynamics, such as project pipelines and investor yields, which often influence local demand more than broader economic factors like cash rates. 

The market remains thin, so high-quality listings can still trigger significant competition, although widespread price growth is expected to stay steady without clear signs of population and job growth.

RBA cash rate forecast 2025-2026

The RBA kept the cash rate at 3.60 per cent at its late-September meeting. The focus now is on whether the Board will make another move before the year's end or wait until early 2026. The current buzz centres on the next CPI print and signs of easing in services inflation and wage growth, amidst a tight rental market and resilient employment. 

The four major banks have updated their views, mostly agreeing on “no further 2025 cuts,” with one exception:

• CBA: No further move in 2025; a -0.25 percentage point cut in February 2026, bringing the cash rate to 3.35 per cent by early 2026.
• Westpac: Expects a -0.25 percentage point cut in November 2025, followed by two more in February and May 2026, reducing the cash rate to 2.85 per cent by mid-2026.
• NAB: No further move in 2025; a -0.25 percentage point cut in May 2026, with the cash rate at 3.35 per cent by mid-2026. There won’t be another interest rate cut this year… [and] far less interest rate relief… could slow housing demand.
• ANZ: No further move in 2025; a -0.25 percentage point cut in February 2026, bringing the cash rate to 3.35 per cent by early 2026.

What this means for the Darwin market

Darwin often follows its own path, driven by factors like project pipelines, fly-in-fly-out demand, and yields, rather than cash-rate changes. A stable rate through 2025 helps solidify earlier gains by keeping repayments predictable and yields attractive for investors seeking cash flow. 

The market remains thin, so quality listings can still generate intense competition. However, broad price growth is likely to remain steady until there’s clearer evidence of population and job growth. Cotality’s latest data shows Darwin’s growth is uneven, consistent with its small, project-sensitive nature.

Darwin house prices graphs and charts

Darwin's house price growth over the last 5 years has been quite volatile, but recent data indicates a strong upswing. As of September 2025, Darwin's house prices rose by +1.7 per cent for the month, +5.9 per cent over the quarter, and +12.9 per cent annually, reaching a record high. Darwin dwelling values are currently at a record high.

The five-year chart analysis shows Darwin's market has experienced a "stop-start growth culminating in a 2025 surge," driven by high rental yields and tight rental vacancies, which have attracted more investors.

Looking back over the last decade, Darwin's property growth has been relatively subdued compared to other capitals, mainly due to economic fluctuations and local market dynamics. However, 2025 marks a significant turnaround, with prices finally surpassing the previous peak set in 2014. This resurgence is partly due to limited housing supply, renewed investor confidence, and local economic factors like defence projects and potential mining ventures.

For homeowners in Darwin, the current sentiment is cautiously optimistic. After a long period of stagnation, many are relieved to see property values rising again, with some finally moving out of negative equity. However, given the market's historical volatility, both buyers and sellers remain vigilant, aware that Darwin's property cycles can be unpredictable.

Darwin selling statistics

Darwin's property market is showing strength, with sales volumes climbing and properties selling faster. This points to strong demand and a competitive buying environment.

Darwin sales volume and days on market

Darwin's sales volume has jumped by +60.1 per cent from last year, showcasing a strong market. Properties are now selling in just 39 days, down from 51 days a year ago, indicating quicker sales.

^{Source: Cotality}

The drop in days on market, along with the sales volume surge, highlights Darwin's vibrant market. While the national median is 30 days, Darwin's properties are not far behind, showing eager buyers ready to act. This trend is different from other capitals, where sales haven't increased as dramatically, highlighting Darwin's unique market dynamics.

Darwin new and total listings

Darwin has seen an -8.7 per cent decrease in new listings and a significant -49.3 per cent drop in total listings year-on-year. This shows fewer properties are available.

^{Source: Cotality}

The sharp fall in total listings means properties are being snapped up quickly, adding to the competitive market conditions. This scarcity could push prices up as buyers vie for fewer properties. Unlike other capitals, Darwin's market is experiencing a unique supply-demand imbalance, likely to continue affecting market dynamics.

Darwin vendor discount

Vendor discount measures the gap between the initial asking price and the final sale price, indicating buyers' bargaining power. Tighter discounts mean sellers are firm on prices, while wider discounts suggest a softer market.

^{Source: Cotality}

In Darwin, the vendor discount has narrowed to -2.9 per cent, showing sellers' confidence in getting close to their asking prices. This is a notable improvement from past periods and suggests a market favouring sellers. Compared to the national median vendor discount of -3.2 per cent, Darwin's tighter discount points to a stronger seller's market, with less room for negotiation by buyers.

Darwin property investing

Darwin’s rental market is in a dynamic phase, marked by tight supply and strong demand. This has led to notable changes in rental rates and yields, which we will explore in detail below.

Darwin rental market

Rental rates in Darwin have shown significant annual growth, reflecting ongoing demand pressures in the city. Gross rental yields remain among the highest across the capitals, highlighting the strong returns available to investors in this market. These trends set the stage for the detailed metrics below.

^{Source: Cotality}

Darwin's rental market is shaped by a severe mismatch between supply and demand. The city recorded a +7.6 per cent increase in rental rates from September 2024 to September 2025, driven largely by unit demand. Despite a slight dip in monthly rents, the annual growth remains strong, indicating a reset from prior highs while maintaining a supply-constrained environment.

Darwin vacancy rates

Vacancy rates are a crucial indicator of the balance between rental supply and demand, affecting both rental prices and tenant options. Nationally, vacancy rates have remained low, indicating a tight rental market across most capitals. This trend is particularly evident in Darwin, where the vacancy rate remains critically low.

^{Source: SQM Research}

Darwin's vacancy rate increased slightly to 0.7 per cent in September 2025, up from 0.5 per cent in previous months, yet it remains well below the balanced range of 2–3 per cent. This low vacancy rate underscores the ongoing tightness in the market, despite a small rise in available properties. Compared to other cities, Darwin's vacancy rate is among the lowest, reflecting the acute supply constraints that continue to favour landlords.

Louis Christopher, Managing Director of SQM Research said in his latest rental market report

“The national vacancy rate holding at 1.2% suggests the rental market remains very tight, with little sign of meaningful supply increases. Sydney and Brisbane continue to see strong tenant demand, while Hobart remains at near record-low vacancy levels. Rents are still rising in most capitals, particularly for houses, despite a slight easing in rental growth rates compared to last year. Overall, we are still seeing an undersupplied rental market, although conditions appear to be stabilising in some cities such as Melbourne and Canberra.”

Darwin’s vacancy rate has nudged up to 0.7 per cent but still sits at extremely tight levels, consistent with Louis’s emphasis on undersupply. The small rise in vacancies has not materially changed overall conditions. Combined rents fell -2.0 per cent month-on-month and -11.4 per cent year-on-year, suggesting a reset from prior highs even as the market remains supply-constrained. With only 171 properties available, any demand pickup could quickly reverse the recent rent relief.

Highest growth areas in Darwin