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Property Clock: Which markets are rising and falling?

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Each month, independent property valuation firm Herron Todd White (HTW) publishes a residential property report that assesses the performance of Australia's 50 largest markets. 

HTW's Property Clock grades each market based on current and predicted performance to determine whether it's rising, falling, peaking or bottoming out. 

Their May 2024 report paints a broadly optimistic picture, but it's a mixed bag when it comes to which markets are on the up and which are in decline. 

Find out where your area lands on HTW's Property Clock this month.

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Markets on the rise

A brief glance at the Property Clock graphics shows the 'rising' quadrant containing the greatest share of markets.

That should come as no surprise as national price growth remains on a steady path upwards.

The bulk of Australia's housing markets are considered to be heading in an upward direction. Source: Herron Todd White

Brisbane and Adelaide are sitting firmly in the 'rising' segment of the clock as the two capital cities continue to break new price records with extraordinary gains each month. 

Perhaps unexpectedly, HTW also have the house and unit markets in Sydney and Melbourne as being on the rise despite a fairly flat start to 2024, suggesting that their growth cycles may not be done for the year. 

Outside of the capitals, a number of Queensland's house markets are also considered to be rising, from the Gold Coast and Ipswich in the southeast all the way up to Townsville in the state's north. 

Looking one rung below in the 'Start of recovery' portion, HTW sees the Sydney-adjacent markets of Newcastle, Illawarra and the Central Coast, along with Queensland's Sunshine Coast, as being ready to start climbing once again.

Markets at or approaching their peak

It's been a long and strong rise for a number of Australia's property markets, and for some HTW believe there are signs that the ascent is finally reaching a peak. 

A greater number of unit markets are poised for more growth according to HTW. Source: Herron Todd White

The most interesting pick from the bunch is houses in Perth. Prices in the WA capital have exploded in recent years, gaining more than +20 per cent in the past 12 months alone.

But while Perth units are still planted in the 'rising market' quadrant, houses have moved up to 'approaching peak of market', suggesting that the meteoric upswing could be about to start winding down. 

Looking elsewhere, houses in Canberra and Darwin are both classified as being at their peak after months of relatively little movement. They're joined by regional areas like Tamworth, Dubbo, Bundaberg and Albany.

Markets declining or at the bottom

The negative side of HTW's property clock looks comparatively bare, but there are still several markets classified as declining or bottoming that are worth highlighting. 

Hobart, which saw a massive surge in buyer demand and price growth during the 2021 boom, has fallen away in the years since as high interest rates hit the Tasmanian capital hard. 

As such, it sits at the bottom of the market quadrant along with areas that underwent similarly rapid booms like NSW's Ballina/Byron Bay, Coffs Harbour and the Southern Highlands. 

In terms of markets that HTW see has still having further to fall, Port Macquarie, Bathurst, Alice Springs, Launceston, Albury and Wodonga are all predicted to be in a downward cycle.

Thinking of selling in 2024?

If you're still looking to get in on the action this year, it's important to be as prepared as possible in order to cut through the competition and achieve a standout result. 

Step 1: Understanding how your market is performing

Every market is different, and understanding your local market is fundamental to making the right selling decisions. Our guide to tracking market trends and data will help you to get a clear picture of how your market is performing and how that impacts you as a seller. 

Step 2: Know what your property might be worth

Getting a free home value estimate is a great way to set a foundation for your selling expectations and begin planning the path forward.

Step 3: Get a no-obligation market appraisal from a top real estate agent

Understand what your property could sell for in the current market by speaking to the top-performing agents in your suburb. Comparing top agents in your area will help you find the perfect partner for your selling journey and move towards a successful result.

Step 4: Finally, get your property listing-ready

Taking a thorough approach to preparing your home for sale is another critical step. From cleaning, decluttering, painting and performing other cosmetic renovations to home staging, photography and marketing, getting your property to sale-ready condition is a must.