Thinking of investing in the Darwin real estate market in 2026?

As Australia’s most affordable capital city to buy property, and with the highest median gross rental yields of all the capitals, Darwin has lots for investors to consider.    

Let’s start with an overview of how the Darwin real estate market performed in 2025 before looking at what experts are predicting for the year ahead.

What did the Darwin property market look like in 2025?

The Darwin property market emerged as the country’s standout performer in 2025, delivering the highest annual growth of any capital city. According to Cotality, dwelling values surged by +15.4 per cent in the 12 months to October 2025, completely outstripping the national average growth rate of +6.1 per cent. After a flat start to the year, momentum accelerated rapidly in the second half as buyers responded to local economic tailwinds and relative affordability.

House values spearheaded this growth, climbing +16.7 per cent over the year to reach a median of approximately $670,000. The unit market also delivered exceptionally strong returns, rising by +12.7 per cent to a median of $410,000. Despite these sharp increases, Darwin retained its status as the most affordable capital city for entry-level buyers, keeping demand high even as prices rose.

Seller activity could not keep pace with buyer appetite, creating a highly competitive environment. Total listings dropped by roughly 16 per cent year-on-year, resulting in a scarcity of stock that put upward pressure on prices. This tight supply coincided with renewed economic confidence driven by the Barossa gas project and sustained Defence spending, ensuring that available homes were absorbed quickly.

For investors, the Top End remained the undisputed yield capital of Australia. Gross rental yields for units reached an impressive 7.7 per cent in October 2025, while house yields sat at 5.8 per cent. With vacancy rates hovering below 1 per cent for much of the year, rental prices surged, attracting interstate investors seeking positive cash flow.

Tim Lawless, Research Director at Cotality, highlighted the city's unique position during the year. He noted, "Annual growth is the strongest of any capital at 15.4%, yet it maintains a significant affordability advantage. It also leads for rental growth."

Darwin real estate forecast and price expectations 2026

Australia’s housing market is projected to reach new record highs in 2026 as interest rate cuts reignite buyer demand, but Darwin has emerged as the most polarising capital city for forecasters. While some experts predict a massive boom driven by major economic projects, the major banks are forecasting a more moderate return to normal after a strong performance in 2025.

SQM Research is the most optimistic, forecasting nation-leading growth of between +12 and +16 per cent. This bullish outlook is based on a "perfect storm" of supply shortages, with listings down significantly and the Barossa gas project ramping up economic activity. Louis Christopher, Managing Director of SQM Research, notes that falling listings and low vacancy rates were “classic signs of a market gearing up for more upside,” creating a distinct advantage for sellers.

In contrast, the major banks expect the market to cool as affordability constraints kick in. CBA forecasts growth of around +5 per cent, while NAB predicts a rise of +3.7 per cent. ANZ is the most conservative, anticipating just +2.4 per cent growth, arguing that the double-digit price surge seen in 2025 will naturally taper off as buyer budgets tighten.

For investors, the primary drawcard remains cash flow. Darwin offers the highest rental yields in the country at approximately 6.5 per cent. With vacancy rates sitting below 1 per cent, rental competition is fierce, putting upward pressure on returns even if capital growth settles into a slower rhythm.

Ultimately, most Darwin property market predictions agree that tight supply will keep a floor under prices in 2026. Whether the market booms due to industry projects or simply steadies due to interest rates, the fundamentals remain tilted in favour of property owners.

What are the best suburbs to invest in Darwin in 2026?

We've put together a list of ten of Darwin's top investment suburbs for 2026 according to OpenAgent analysis of short-term and long-term growth patterns, listing activity, selling speed and rental yields. 

Nightcliff, NT 0810

Nightcliff is Darwin’s premier coastal lifestyle precinct, commanding a median house price of $1,185,000. It has delivered exceptional performance with +27.4 per cent annual growth and a massive +86.6 per cent increase over five years. The suburb is famous for its foreshore walking path, Sunday markets, and iconic jetty, drawing active families and professionals. With a rental yield of 4.4 per cent, it balances high capital returns with steady income potential.

Bayview, NT 0820

Bayview offers a prestigious marina lifestyle just minutes from the CBD, with a median unit price of $616,250. The market has strengthened significantly, recording +16.8 per cent growth over the last 12 months and +74.8 per cent over five years. Known for its canal-front properties and quiet cul-de-sacs, it appeals to buyers wanting luxury without the maintenance of a large block. The suburb’s proximity to the city and water makes it a unique proposition in the Top End market.

Ludmilla, NT 0820

Ludmilla is an inner-northern suburb with a median house price of $712,500, offering excellent proximity to the city and airport. It has seen a sharp rise in value with +25.0 per cent annual growth, supported by a median time on market of just 34 days. The area is known for its large, leafy blocks and easy access to the Parap markets and Fannie Bay foreshore. For investors, Ludmilla represents a strategic middle-market option with +52.2 per cent growth over the past five years.

Bakewell, NT 0832

Bakewell provides an affordable entry point in the Palmerston region with a median unit price of $337,000. The suburb has recorded strong momentum with +20.4 per cent growth in the past year and offers an attractive rental yield of 5.9 per cent. Popular with families and essential workers, it is well-serviced by local schools, parks, and the Bakewell Shopping Centre. The combination of a low entry price and high rental demand makes it a practical choice for yield-focused investors.

Stuart Park, NT 0820

Stuart Park sits on the fringe of the Darwin CBD, offering a median house price of $1,006,500. It has achieved +22.0 per cent annual growth, driven by professionals seeking short commutes and city views. The suburb features a mix of classic elevated tropical homes and modern developments, supporting a solid rental yield of 5.0 per cent. With +50.9 per cent growth over five years, it remains a high-demand location for those prioritising convenience and lifestyle.

Parap, NT 0820

Parap is a vibrant inner-suburb known for its famous Saturday markets and village atmosphere, with a median unit price of $430,000. The market has grown +15.4 per cent over the last year, offering investors a healthy rental yield of 5.6 per cent. It attracts a diverse mix of tenants who value walking access to cafes, the Parap Pool, and nearby Fannie Bay. This strong lifestyle appeal has underpinned steady long-term demand and capital appreciation.

Rosebery, NT 0832

Rosebery is a modern suburb in Palmerston offering a median unit price of $365,000 and a robust rental yield of 6.0 per cent. It has recorded +11.1 per cent growth in the last 12 months, building on a strong five-year trend of +55.3 per cent. The area is designed for families, featuring contemporary housing, local schools, and plenty of parklands. For investors, the high yield and affordable price point provide a compelling case for cash flow.

Karama, NT 0812

Karama offers value in Darwin’s northern suburbs with a median house price of $522,500. The suburb has seen prices rise by +16.8 per cent over the past year as buyers seek affordability near major amenities. Located just a short drive from Casuarina Square and Leanyer Recreation Park, it is well-positioned for families and renters. The five-year growth of +37.5 per cent highlights its steady catch-up potential in the broader Darwin market.

Moulden, NT 0830

Moulden is one of the most affordable house markets in the region, with a median price of $440,000. Properties are selling incredibly fast, with a median time on market of just 9 days, signaling intense buyer competition. The suburb has delivered +12.8 per cent annual growth and +46.7 per cent over five years. Its established infrastructure and proximity to the Palmerston CBD make it a practical option for entry-level investors and first-home buyers.

Zuccoli, NT 0832

Zuccoli is a rapidly developing master-planned community in Palmerston with a median house price of $630,000. It has recorded +9.9 per cent growth in the last year, reflecting steady demand for modern, low-maintenance homes. The suburb is popular with young families due to its new schools, local shops, and abundance of parks and walking trails. With +45.3 per cent growth over five years, it has established itself as a key growth corridor in the Top End.

Disclaimer: Rankings use OpenAgent’s internal weighted scoring of price growth, days on market, listings and indicative yield. General information only—not financial advice; figures are estimates; past performance is not reliable. Always seek independent advice.