The past few years have been a rollercoaster ride for Australian property. Prices soared by +28.6 per cent over the pandemic boom before rising interest rates caused a downturn in 2022. A remarkable rebound that started in 2023 pushed home values back to record levels in 2024 and, following a short and shallow dip around the new year, prices rose solidly through 2025 on the back of three consecutive interest rate cuts.

Then 2026 brought a fresh twist. Conflict in the Middle East sent oil and energy prices surging, reigniting inflation and forcing the Reserve Bank to reverse course. Three rate hikes unwound all of last year's cuts in a matter of months — and with the cash rate now back at 4.35 per cent, conditions for sellers have shifted once again. Clearly, there's a lot to consider for anybody thinking about listing their home.

Is it best to take advantage of the current conditions in what broadly remains a seller's market? Or is there value in waiting to see how things unfold over the coming months? 

Whether you choose to sell isn’t just about current market conditions, but also the urgency of your own personal circumstances. For some of us, we needed to upsize into a bigger property yesterday, while for others, waiting for the market to rise might be a good incentive to release more capital before retirement. 

Let’s explore the current real estate climate, the pros and cons of waiting versus selling now, and what economists believe is on the horizon for the months ahead.

Should I sell my house now or wait?

Whether you choose to sell or not to sell isn’t just about current market conditions, but also the urgency of your own personal circumstances. For some of us, we needed to upsize into a bigger property yesterday, while for others, waiting for the market to rise might be a good incentive to release more capital before retirement.

Here are some high-level factors to consider when weighing up your options.

When it’s a good time to sell a house

• Property prices have been growing in your suburb (or, similar properties are selling for a price you're happy with)
• Days on market (DOM) in your area is low (properties are selling fast)
• Auction clearance rates are high in your suburb
• There are many buyers attending open homes and auctions in your area
• You've built up equity in your property
• Your property doesn't need any major repairs
• You're ready to downsize, relocate or just move on

When you should wait before you sell

• Market conditions in your suburb are weak, i.e. falling prices, high DOM, low auction clearance rates
• Buyer activity and confidence in your area is low
• You’re likely to sell at a loss or haven’t built enough equity
• Your property needs significant repairs or upgrades

Helpful resource: Get a suburb profile for any suburb in Australia

The current state of the market

According to Cotality's latest data, Australia's national median home value rose +0.3 per cent in April to reach $940,048 — the slowest monthly pace of growth since January 2025.

CoreLogic Australian Home Value Index - May 2026

Sydney and Melbourne both fell -0.6 per cent over the month, extending a decline that has been running since November last year. Sydney is now -1.0 per cent below its November peak, while Melbourne has retreated -1.9 per cent from its most recent high.

Perth continued to lead the country, adding +2.1 per cent for the month and reaching a median above $1 million. Brisbane gained +1.2 per cent and Adelaide +1.1 per cent, while Darwin added +1.3 per cent. 

Regional markets held up better than the combined capitals overall, rising +0.9 per cent over the month with no regional sub-market recording a decline over the first four months of the year.

Cotality's research director Tim Lawless said the easing has been building for some time.

"The housing market was losing momentum from late last year as affordability and serviceability constraints weighed on demand. Now we have the additional downside pressure of higher interest rates, sentiment has fallen off a cliff, and rising inflation is set to drive the cost of debt even higher."

Australian property market forecast

Interest rates have been a central focus for the property market since they began rising in May 2022, and 2026 has brought a dramatic new chapter.

Three consecutive rate hikes between February and May have reversed all of last year's cuts, returning the cash rate to 4.35 per cent — the same peak reached during the previous tightening cycle. Unlike that cycle, however, the RBA has signalled that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, leaving the door open to further moves.

The big four banks are divided on what comes next. ANZ, CBA, and NAB all expect the cash rate to hold at 4.35 per cent for the remainder of 2026, while Westpac stands alone in forecasting two further hikes in June and August, which would push the cash rate to 4.85 per cent — a level not seen since 2008.

On property prices, the forecasts have also shifted materially since the start of the year.

Big banks' Australian property price forecast 2026

SQM Research's Louis Christopher took the unusual step earlier this year of revising his annual Boom and Bust forecasts mid-cycle. 

His updated base case — which assumes the cash rate peaks at 4.35 per cent — now puts national capital city dwelling price growth at between 0 and +3 per cent for the full year, down sharply from the +6 to +10 per cent forecast published in November. Mr Christopher has also modelled more pessimistic scenarios if rates rise further, as well as more optimistic paths if the Middle East conflict is resolved sooner than expected.

The honest reality is that the outlook is changing quickly, and even the most credible forecasters are working with significant uncertainty about how the rest of 2026 plays out.

What are the upsides in the current market? 

Despite the shift in conditions, there are still genuine reasons for sellers to feel confident — particularly those who have held their property for a number of years.

The most obvious is that property values remain at or near record levels in most markets around the country. Over the five years since the start of the pandemic, the median Australian home value has risen more than 45 per cent.

That number has soared in Perth (+89.1 per cent), Brisbane (+87.2 per cent) and Adelaide (+79.0 per cent), meaning the vast majority of sellers who have held their property for even a few years look set to make a very substantial profit.

Domain's 2026 Profit and Loss Report found that 97.5 per cent of house sellers across Australia made a profit in the second half of last year — a record-high ratio. The national median resale profit was $440,000, reaching $750,000 in Sydney and record medians of $580,000 and $528,000 in Brisbane and Perth respectively.

The ongoing issue of housing undersupply continues to support property prices. AMP chief economist Shane Oliver estimates Australia's cumulative dwelling deficit is now tracking between 200,000 and 300,000 homes — a shortage that shows no sign of resolving any time soon.

More affordable and entry-level properties continue to attract above-average demand, particularly from first home buyers. 

New Cotality analysis found that since the government's 5 per cent Deposit Scheme was expanded in October last year, properties priced below the scheme's price caps have grown in value by 6.7 per cent — nearly double the 3.6 per cent recorded for higher-priced homes over the same period. That demand concentration at the affordable end of the market is good news for sellers in that segment, even as conditions soften elsewhere.

Ultimately, prices remain at or near record levels in many markets across the country, and looking back over the past few years there has been an exceptional level of growth for home values.

See what houses are selling for in your area with a free property report of your local area.

What about investment properties? 

Current market conditions are a bit of a double-edged sword for property investors. 

On the one hand, an extremely tight rental market is providing incentives. SQM Research data shows national vacancy rates still extremely low at just 1.0 per cent in March, while rental rates have soared +6.8 per cent per annum over the past three years. 

At the same time, interest rates are back up to their previous peak of 4.35 per cent, meaning investors still face hefty mortgages and a higher barrier to entry to buy.

How the two forces play out largely depends on an investor's loan balance. Some investors are opting to sell up to avoid inflated repayments, while others with lower or nil balances may benefit from the current rental market dynamics.

Is it a buyer's market or a seller's market right now?

In a city like Perth, which has seen stunning rates of monthly price growth over the past few years, well below-average listings, strong buyer demand, and lightning-fast days on market, it's easy to apply the 'seller's market' label.

In many other cases, though, the task isn't quite as simple, particularly when looking down to a suburb level. 

Assessing whether a market is balanced or favours either sellers or buyers requires looking at a range of data as well as getting a first-hand feel of what's happening on the ground. 

Some of those key data points include price movements, auction clearance rates, new and total listing levels, sales volumes, average days on market and vendor discounting rates.

But the data can only tell you so much. It's also worth heading along to nearby open homes and auctions to get a sense of what the competition is like on both the selling and buying sides.

Our simple guide to tracking market trends and data will walk you through everything you need to know to be able to read the market and make a smarter selling decision. 

What to do before deciding to sell

If you’re still on the fence about selling, we get it. It’s a huge decision that deserves all your careful consideration weighing up the advantages and disadvantages for either scenario.

Whether your property is impacted by price gains or falls depends on many factors including location, property type, and whether your home falls into the higher or lower end of the market.

If you’re seriously considering selling your home, you need to do your research. As a first step, get an estimate of what your home might be worth in today's market.

Speaking to a top local agent is also one of the best ways to get a thorough understanding of how buyers are behaving in your suburb, what kinds of results are still being achieved, and what the best strategy could be for you to still get that dream sale result. 

At the very least, it’s helpful to hear what properties are selling for, what demand is currently like for homes like yours, and to get a no-obligation appraisal of what your home might sell for in the current market. A top agent who knows your market like the back of their hand will be able to help you along the journey.