The past few years have been a rollercoaster ride for Australian property. Prices soared by +28.6 per cent over the pandemic boom before rising interest rates sent values sharply lower in 2022.

A remarkable rebound that started in 2023 pushed home values back to record levels in 2024 and, following a short and shallow dip around the new year, prices rose solidly through 2025 on the back of three consecutive interest rate cuts.

Then 2026 brought a fresh twist. Conflict in the Middle East sent oil and energy prices surging, reigniting inflation and forcing the Reserve Bank to reverse course with three rate hikes between February and May.

The cash rate is back at 4.35 per cent, home values have been easing since late last year, and May's federal budget delivered the biggest shake-up to property tax in more than 25 years. Clearly, there's a lot to consider for anybody thinking about listing their home.

So is now still a sensible time to sell? Or is there value in waiting to see how things unfold over the coming months?

Whether you choose to sell isn't just about current market conditions, but also the urgency of your own personal circumstances. For some of us, we needed to upsize into a bigger property yesterday, while for others, waiting for the market to rise might be a good incentive to release more capital before retirement.

Let's explore the current real estate climate, the pros and cons of waiting versus selling now, and what economists believe is on the horizon for the months ahead.

Should I sell my house now or wait?

Whether you choose to sell or not to sell isn’t just about current market conditions, but also the urgency of your own personal circumstances. For some of us, we needed to upsize into a bigger property yesterday, while for others, waiting for the market to rise might be a good incentive to release more capital before retirement.

Here are some high-level factors to consider when weighing up your options.

When it’s a good time to sell a house

• Property prices have been growing in your suburb (or, similar properties are selling for a price you're happy with)
• Days on market (DOM) in your area is low (properties are selling fast)
• Auction clearance rates in your suburb are holding up
• There are many buyers attending open homes and auctions in your area
• You've built up equity in your property
• Your property doesn't need any major repairs
• You've found your next home, or you have a clear sense of where you're heading
• You're ready to downsize, relocate or just move on

When you might not be ready to sell yet

• You haven't built up much equity yet, or you bought recently enough that you'd likely sell at a loss
• Your property needs repairs or presentation work that would make a real difference to the result
• You don't yet have a clear plan for where you're moving to
• You're partway through a renovation or approval that will add value once it's finished

Helpful resource: Get a suburb profile for any suburb in Australia

The current state of the market

According to Cotality's latest data, Australia's national median home value fell 0.7 per cent in July to $928,421, the largest single-month decline since December 2022.

Cotality Australian Home Value Index - July 2026

Sydney and Melbourne continued to lead the national decline, falling 1.4 per cent and 1.2 per cent respectively over the month. Sydney now sits 5.3 per cent below its January peak, while Melbourne is 5.5 per cent below its March 2022 high.

The softening has extended to markets that had been holding firm. Brisbane and Adelaide both recorded a second consecutive monthly fall, at 0.6 per cent and 0.2 per cent, while Perth edged 0.1 per cent higher.

Annual growth remains strong across much of the country, though. Perth is up 20.5 per cent over the year, with Darwin at 16.3 per cent and Brisbane at 14.8 per cent.

The falls have also been concentrated at the upper end of the market. Values in the top quartile fell 3.2 per cent nationally over the three months to July, while the lowest 25 per cent of the market rose 0.3 per cent.

Regional markets have held up better than the capitals throughout, though they too recorded a small decline of 0.2 per cent in July, the first since January 2023.

Australian property market forecast

Interest rates have been a central focus for the property market since they began rising in May 2022, and 2026 has brought a dramatic new chapter.

Three consecutive rate hikes between February and May reversed all of last year's cuts, returning the cash rate to 4.35 per cent, the same peak reached during the previous tightening cycle.

Since then, the picture has steadied. The Reserve Bank held rates in both June and August after headline inflation eased to 3.8 per cent in June, down from a recent peak of 4.2 per cent in April.

The consensus view is now that the cash rate has peaked, and none of the big four banks are forecasting further hikes this year. The RBA Governor did note in July that the board retains a tightening bias, so inflation and unemployment figures are still worth watching.

On property prices, the forecasts have shifted materially in recent months.

Big banks' Australian property price forecast 2026-2027

Encouragingly, three of the four expect values to start recovering in 2027.

It's also worth remembering that these are national figures, and all four banks still expect Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide to finish the year higher than they started it. That gap is why it pays to look closely at your own market rather than treating a single number as your answer.

SQM Research's Louis Christopher took the unusual step earlier this year of revising his annual Boom and Bust forecasts mid-cycle. His base case, which assumes the cash rate peaks at 4.35 per cent, puts national capital city dwelling price growth at between 0 and +3 per cent for the full year.

May's federal budget also brought the biggest change to property taxation in more than 25 years, with negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions on investment properties both restricted from July 2027.

Importantly for owner-occupiers, the main residence exemption from capital gains tax was left completely untouched, so most people selling the home they live in are unaffected. Here's what the 2026 budget means for sellers.

The honest reality is that the outlook is changing quickly, and even the most credible forecasters are working with significant uncertainty about how the rest of 2026 plays out.

What are the upsides in the current market? 

Even as conditions soften, there are still genuine reasons for sellers to feel confident, particularly those who have held their property for a number of years.

The first is that the declines have not been felt evenly. In Sydney, values in the top quartile of the market fell 5.2 per cent over the three months to July, while the bottom quartile fell just 1.4 per cent.

Melbourne recorded a similar split, and the same pattern held across every capital city.

For most sellers, in other words, the national figures are describing a steeper fall than the one happening to their own property.

The second is that long-term gains remain substantial. Domain's latest Profit and Loss Report found that 97.4 per cent of house resales across Australia made a profit in the first half of 2026, easing only slightly from 97.5 per cent in the second half of last year.

Median profits actually reached new highs, at $458,000 nationally and $739,500 in Sydney. Perth recorded the highest share of profitable house sales at 99.6 per cent.

Domain chief residential economist Dr Nicola Powell said the results point to an increasingly fragmented market.

"Most sellers are still making significant gains, with record median profits highlighting the strength of the wealth accumulated over recent years."

Housing undersupply also continues to support prices. AMP chief economist Shane Oliver estimates Australia's cumulative dwelling deficit is now tracking between 200,000 and 300,000 homes, a shortage that shows no sign of resolving any time soon.

Cotality has made a similar point, noting that fewer new listings coming to market alongside constraints on new construction could limit how far values fall from here.

More affordable and entry-level properties continue to attract above-average demand, particularly from first home buyers. Since the government's 5 per cent Deposit Scheme was expanded, first home buyers have grown to 29.2 per cent of all owner-occupier lending, above the decade average of 27.6 per cent.

See what houses are selling for in your area with a free property report of your local area.

What about investment properties? 

Current market conditions are a bit of a double-edged sword for property investors.

On the one hand, a tight rental market continues to provide incentives. Cotality data shows the national vacancy rate sitting at just 1.7 per cent in July, well below the ten-year average of 2.4 per cent, while rents have risen 5.9 per cent over the past year.

With rents climbing as values ease, rental yields have improved. The gross rental yield across the combined capitals reached 3.56 per cent in July, its highest level since August 2019.

At the same time, the cash rate is back at its previous peak of 4.35 per cent, meaning investors still face hefty mortgages and a higher barrier to entry to buy.

May's federal budget has also shifted the picture for investors, restricting negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions on investment properties from July 2027.

How these forces play out largely depends on an investor's loan balance. Some investors are opting to sell up to avoid inflated repayments, while others with lower or nil balances may benefit from the current rental market dynamics.

Is it a buyer's market or a seller's market right now?

Perth has seen stunning rates of price growth over the past few years, and with values still up more than 20 per cent over the year and the fastest days on market in the country, it's easy to apply the seller's market label there.

In many other cases, though, the task isn't quite as simple, particularly when looking down to a suburb level.

Assessing whether a market is balanced or favours either sellers or buyers requires looking at a range of data as well as getting a first-hand feel of what's happening on the ground.

Some of those key data points include price movements, auction clearance rates, new and total listing levels, sales volumes, average days on market and vendor discounting rates.

But the data can only tell you so much. It's also worth heading along to nearby open homes and auctions to get a sense of what the competition is like on both the selling and buying sides.

Our simple guide to tracking market trends and data will walk you through everything you need to know to be able to read the market and make a smarter selling decision.

What to do before deciding to sell

If you’re still on the fence about selling, we get it. It’s a huge decision that deserves all your careful consideration weighing up the advantages and disadvantages for either scenario. 

Even if the market feels uncertain, it’s important to remember that it’s all relative and the market doesn’t stop. There will always be properties being listed and buyers out there wanting to purchase a home. 

It's also crucial to recognise that conditions will vary from suburb to suburb, so it’s important to understand your own local market — and to do that, you really need to get granular. 

Whether your property is impacted by price gains or falls depends on many factors including location, property type, and whether your home falls into the higher or lower end of the market.

If you’re seriously considering selling your home, you need to do your research. As a first step, get a ballpark estimate of what your home might be worth by using a free online estimation tool. 

Speaking to a top local agent is also one of the best ways to get a thorough understanding of how buyers are behaving in your suburb, what kinds of results are still being achieved, and what the best strategy could be for you to still get that dream sale result. 

At the very least, it’s helpful to hear what properties are selling for, what demand is currently like for homes like yours, and to get a no-obligation appraisal of what your home might sell for in the current market. A top agent who knows your market like the back of their hand will be able to help you along the journey.